What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
The total primary energy consumption of the transport sector in Indonesia has been steadily increasing, from 0.45 EJ in 1990 to 2.27 EJ in 201924, and now consumes around 34% of the total primary energy. Emissions from transport accounted for 27% of Indonesia’s energy-related CO₂ emissions as, with a 95% share, the sector is dominated by oil.1,2
Indonesia's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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In all our analysed scenarios, fossil energy demand from transport sector peaks by 2020-2025 and declines thereafter. One of the scenarios is showing a fossil fuel phase-out from the transport sector by 2060. A Paris Agreement compatible pathway requires a rapid electrification of the transport sector, which could reach 23-48% by 2050 of energy consumption. In our analysis, all scenarios except one show a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions intensity of the transport sector to 83-100 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, and 14-26 MtCO₂/yr by 2050, from a 2019 level of 150 MtCO₂/yr. Correspondingly, an increased share of hydrogen and biofuel, of 36-58% and 15-50.6%, respectively, is requires by 2050 under different scenarios.
Indonesia is currently providing a policy push for its transport sector transition. The Electric Vehicles Development Plan and General Plan of National Energy, published in 2017, projects that 2200 fully electric and 700,000 hybrid cars and two million electric two-wheelers will be on the road by 2025.3 This is underwritten by various schemes that provide support to deal with the high upfront costs of electric vehicles, while increasing a biofuel blending mandate from a current rate of 30% to 40% by 2022. This is not sustainable as the production of palm oil – the main biofuel used - is strongly linked to deforestation and peat land destruction.4 Indonesia is also increasing the connectivity with integrated public transportation such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), MRT, LRT, traffic management technologies, and urban railway systems.5
Indonesia's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Indonesia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
150
|
83 to
100
|
46 to
59
|
14 to
26
|
2055 to
2058
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-44 to
-33%
|
-69 to
-61%
|
-91 to
-82%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
6 to
7
|
13 to
14
|
23 to
48
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
7
|
5 to
17
|
10 to
28
|
15 to
50
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
20
|
21 to
55
|
36 to
58
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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