What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
LULUCF
LULUCF emissions profile trajectories
Between 2005–2020, almost half of Indonesia’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were from the land sector, mainly due to commodity-driven deforestation (particularly for palm oil), forestry, and peat fires.1-2 Over many years, palm oil, pulp and paper, and timber industries have cleared and prepared the carbon-rich peatland through slash-and-burn tactics and water drainage, leaving the peat layers dry and highly flammable.3 After forest fire outbreaks in 2015, a year in which the land sector contributed around 80% of the country’s total GHG emissions, Indonesia enforced a moratorium on the clearing and draining of peat lands and primary forests for new oil palm, pulpwood, and timber plantations.4,5
In its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Indonesia unconditionally pledged to reduce its emissions by 29% below business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030 and to reach net zero emissions by 2060 or sooner, through a net sink in the LULUCF sector.6,7 In the 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here, reforestation and afforestation results in carbon removals of –10 MtCO₂/year by 2030. However, LULUCF continues to be a primary source of future emissions in this pathway, mainly due to continued emissions from peatland that has been drained in the past. Peatland restoration measures will be needed to mitigate these emissions. However, the moratorium law that intends to protect and restore peatland has been underdelivered on, suggesting urgent needs to improve these efforts.8 Moreover, Indonesia urgently needs to focus on reducing emissions through reducing deforestation, which is currently under risk as Indonesia has announced new regulation with loopholes that could potentially result in land clearing for agriculture and oil palm.9,10
An analysis estimated that reforestation while securing food, fibre, and biodiversity could remove 212 MtCO₂e/year by 2030; however, greater potential lies in peatland restoration.11 This estimate is higher than in the analysed 1.5°C compatible pathway, which suggests that there could be more reforestation potential in Indonesia than what the underlying model estimates. However, Indonesia needs adequate international support for large-scale afforestation/reforestation.12
Indonesia's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂/yr
Note that there is an inconsistency between modelled LULUCF emissions and sequestration and historical emissions and sequestration reported by countries. This is because of a difference in how anthropogenic emissions and sequestration are estimated in greenhouse gas inventories compared to models.
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions in 2005 – 2020 for the LULUCF sector are derived from national greenhouse gas inventories (data source: FAO 2021). Future emissions trajectory in 2025 - 2060 for the LULUCF sector is derived from a global 1.5°C compatible pathway downscaled to the country level (data source: IMAGE 2021). Positive emissions indicate an increase in deforestation or other sources related to land use change. Negative emissions indicate an increase of forest area through afforestation/reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
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Indonesia's Forest area change
Million ha / yr
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Graph description
The graph indicates the annual rate of forest area change. Negative values result from a loss in forest area through deforestation and forestry (i.e. harvesting). Positive values result in forest area expansion through reforestation or afforestation. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
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Forest area change
Nationwide forest fires in 2015 caused forest cover loss at a 50% higher rate than in 2005.13 This has been exacerbated by illegal logging and forest conversion to palm oil, timber, and pulp-and-paper plantations. In 2017, Indonesia experienced a 60% drop in tree cover loss, compared to 2016, partly due to the moratorium on clearing primary forests.14 Despite this progress, Indonesia still needs to improve forest governance, for example by establishing joint efforts with plantation companies to protect forests and peatlands, and to halt deforestation in the future.15,16,17
In the 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here, forest cover loss caused by deforestation declines steeply between 2035 and 2040. Indonesia urgently needs to halt deforestation through better governance that restricts agriculture expansion and illegal logging.18
The 1.5°C compatible pathway indicates that Indonesia can increase forest cover starting from 2025 through afforestation/reforestation, with a rate between 0.1 to 0.8 million ha/year. This results in an increase in forest area by around 6.5 million ha by 2050 (see figure of Indonesia’s Forest area change). To put this in context, this is about a quarter of the total forest loss in 2002–2021, which was 27.5 million ha.19
Indonesia plans to increase forest areas through afforestation/reforestation on forest and peatland, and protect the remaining primary forests.20 However, threats remain. Despite the moratorium, deforestation and forest fires are still occurring in protected areas.21 This is linked to counterproductive policies that reduces the extent of protected peat landscapes as well as policies allowing the conversion of protected forests to large-scale commodity plantations.22,23 Unprotected forests could also be subject to deforestation after Indonesia proposed a “land swap” scheme which offers substitute lands for companies whose plantations are located in protected areas.24 A push to increase palm oil-based biofuel intake for transportation would further put pressure on Indonesian forests and peat landscapes.25 Indonesia needs to find a balance between palm oil production and environmental protection to increase forest area, halt deforestation and peatland restoration.26
Indonesia's Land cover areas
Million ha
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Graph description
The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
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Indonesia's land cover change relative to 2020
Million ha
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Graph description
The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
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Evolution of land-use pattern
Indonesia’s emissions reduction and carbon removal strategies are centred around forests and cropland.27,28 By 2030, Indonesia plans to increase forest areas through afforestation/reforestation and avoiding deforestation by optimising the use of unproductive lands (i.e. abandoned areas) for agriculture.29
Under the 1.5°C compatible pathway, the area for cropland expands to 4% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. During that period, pasture land decreases by 17% compared to 2020 levels. Between 2040 and 2050, the area of cropland decreases, which could be made possible through sustainable agricultural practices that reduces pressure on forest land. In 2050, forests remain as the dominant land use type in Indonesia, with a 7% larger area than in 2020. Declines in cropland, pastureland, and the area of other natural land, such as grasslands, shrubs and abandoned area, frees land for the rapid growth in forested areas after 2040.
Indonesia requires international support such as finance, technology and capacity development to fulfil the food demand of its growing population while pursuing efforts to improve its agricultural practices.30 Several measures Indonesia plans to adopt includes planting crop varieties with improved productivity and expanding cropland on grasslands, shrubs and abandoned lands to reduce pressure on forests. Optimising the use of lands for different economic purposes could further reduce pressure on forests, such as complex agroforestry that combines livestock and palm oil.31 Afforestation, reforestation and natural regeneration on non-forest areas could increase forested area, and expanding protected forest could prevent deforestation in Indonesia’s primary forests. Restoration, protection, and improved management of peatlands would need to remain a priority in Indonesia alongside forestry and agriculture.32,33
n1. Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).