What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
Indonesia’s power system is heavily reliant on coal, with an emissions intensity of almost 760 gCO₂/kWh in 2019. Given the important role of power in decarbonisation, all analysed pathways consider that it needs to decarbonise rapidly. This requires a significant scale up of renewable power technologies, including solar and wind power, as well as dispatchable renewables, such as geothermal and hydro power. The share of all these renewable technologies together would need to reach 70-76% by 2030 and 99–100% by 2050, starting from 17% in 2019. Regional benchmarks indicate a share of renewables up to 84% by 2030 in South-East Asia.1 This stands in contrast with Indonesia’s long-term strategy to reach net zero by 2060, with a power mix from its long term Paris compatible scenario” (LCCP) of renewables (43%), coal (38%), natural gas (10%) and BECCS (8%).2
The most readily available technologies for decarbonisation at Indonesia’s disposal are renewables. A stronger push for renewables uptake can result in emissions intensity dropping to 110-160 gCO₂/kWh as early as 2030 and allow Indonesia to engage on a 1.5°C compatible pathway without having to rely on the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as DACCS or BECCS, that are expected to play a role in GHG mitigation of power sector.3 Indonesia’s power system regulation is slowly transforming but faster action is required to achieve these emissions reductions.
Indonesia's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The full decarbonisation of the power sector is achieved in 1.5°C compatible pathways from as early as 2035, by phasing out of coal by 2030, followed by gas by around 2035. In all analysed pathways, gas use peaks in 2030 and declines thereafter with complete phase-out reached in almost all analysed pathways by 2050. Oil is phased out between 2025 and 2040 in most pathways.
Indonesia aims to rely on CCS technologies coupled with fossil fuels, targeting in its long-term plan to equip 76% of the coal power plant with CCS. Given the proven emissions intensity of these non-yet available at scale and costly technologies, it would be a safer path to engage on fostering the development of renewable technologies in the country.4,5
Indonesia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Indonesia to be on the order of USD 10-27 billion by 2030 and 12-61 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors (particularly in building and industries), growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Indonesia's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Indonesia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
762
|
106 to
158
|
-71 to
0
|
-43 to
-9
|
2035 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-86 to
-79%
|
-109 to
-100%
|
-106 to
-101%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
59
|
0 to
16
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
21
|
9 to
10
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2035 to
2037
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
17
|
70 to
76
|
99 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
83
|
24 to
30
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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