What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
In Indonesia, the industrial sector makes up 37% of direct CO₂ emissions and has the highest share in primary energy demand at 36.4% in 2019.1,2 While its energy demand has been volatile since 2008, it has steadily increased since 1990 at an annual rate of 6.4% reaching 36% in 2019.3 Analysed scenarios show that in 1.5°C compatible pathway share of electricity in industry will increase in the range of 18-20% by 2030 and 45-56% by 2050 from 2019 level of 14%. All scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions to 75-79 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, and 14-15 MtCO₂/yr by 2050 from 2019 level of 180 MtCO₂/yr. This decline will mostly be driven by increased energy efficiency.
Indonesia's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The sectoral primary energy demand is heavily dominated by fossil fuels (75% in 2019), comprising of coal 42%, oil 11% and natural gas 22% in 2019. All scenarios show peaking of fossil energy demand by 2025-2030, and a declining trend after that to reach 14-54% share by 2050.
The share of industrial process emissions is 6.3% of total emissions excluding LULUCF (59 MtCO₂e/yr in 2019), increasing since 1990.4 All scenarios except one show a declining trend of process emissions from 2025, reaching up to –3 to 57 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.
Energy efficiency improvements in Indonesia constitute an important intervention for industrial energy conservation as better energy efficiency prevented 8% of additional energy use between 2010 and 2018.5 Additionally, structural change of the economic activities from energy intensive manufacturing to the less energy intensive service sector has contributed significantly to emissions reduction, particularly in the period 2014-18.6 As a part of industrial emissions intensity reduction policy Indonesia is set to expand its biofuel blending mandate beyond transport sector for industries also.
Indonesia's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Indonesia's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Indonesia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
180
|
75 to
79
|
36 to
36
|
14 to
15
|
2046 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-59 to
-56%
|
-80 to
-80%
|
-92 to
-92%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
14
|
18 to
20
|
31 to
40
|
45 to
56
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
25
|
35 to
47
|
47 to
87
|
57 to
96
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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