Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

Indonesia’s updated NDC reiterates its 2015 target pledges stated in its 2015 NDC of an unconditional emissions reduction of 29% below business as usual (BAU) levels, and a conditional contribution of 41% below BAU by 2030.¹

Indonesia’s conditional NDC would result in an increase in GHG emissions excluding land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) of 99-100% above 2015 levels by 2030.² Modelled pathways show that, to be 1.5°C compatible, emissions excluding LULUCF need to decrease 30-48% below 2015 levels by 2030 (between 435-581 MtCO₂e per year until 2030). Achieving an emissions sink from the LULUCF sector however is critical to achieving a Paris Agreement compliant target, corresponds to a reduction of around 84-89% below 2030 including LULUCF or 63-75% below 2015 levels.³

Indonesia will very likely meet its NDC targets under current policies. This is primarily due to the very high emissions baseline scenario used for the basis of the NDC target definition meaning that the country will likely achieve its targets without any additional efforts while still doubling its emissions (excl. LULUCF).

While Indonesia’s current policies would allow for emissions far above from its “fair share” range as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, the country will need to receive international support to close the gap between its fair share and domestic emissions pathway.⁴

Indonesia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Indonesia is one of the few developing countries to publish its ‘long-term strategy for low carbon and climate resilience 2050’. While it aims at reaching net zero by 2060, the level of emissions reduction under its “long term Paris compatible scenario” (LCCP) remain insufficient compared to analysed 1.5°C compatible models here.⁵

According to Bappenas, Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency, a more ambitious emission reduction pathway leading to net zero emissions by 2045 would be economically and socially beneficial.⁶

1.5°C compatible pathways show that by 2050, GHG emissions excluding LULUCF could be reduced to 150-216 MtCO₂e/yr or 74-82% below 2015 levels, driven primarily through emissions reductions in the energy sector, but also in waste and agriculture.⁷ The remaining emissions would need to be balanced through the use of negative emissions such as land sinks up to –216 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050. This stands in contrasts with Indonesia’s long-term strategy which would still allow emissions to increase by 2050, by around 1% compared to 2015 levels.⁸

Avoiding the need for negative emissions at this scale would need faster decarbonisation in the other energy-using sectors. In addition, reaching larger shares of renewables earlier would reduce reliance on negative emissions technologies in the second half of the century under a 1.5°C domestic pathway. The land use sector is important in Indonesia, and emissions from LULUCF could be brought to zero by around 2030 and become an emission sink thereafter leading to net zero GHG including LULUCF being achieved from around 2040.⁹

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

The energy sector will need to contribute the largest emissions reductions to 2030, through a shift from fossil energy use to zero and near-zero carbon sources. This will require a reduction of the current 73% share of coal, oil and natural gas use in the primary energy mix to be 45-75% 2030, and around 6-57% by 2050.

To enable this reduction, Indonesia would need to considerably scale up renewable energy sources, from less than a quarter of all primary energy in 2019 to over two-thirds by 2050. This means an increase in absolute terms from 2.5 EJ_primary in 2019 to 1.5–6 EJ_primary in 2050. The lower value in this range would be consistent with the Paris Agreement only if nuclear power or fossil energy with CCS technology were to be introduced at significant scale in Indonesia’s power and industry sectors, reaching a share in primary energy of up to 22% by 2030 and 37% by 2050. Neither technology exists in the country today. To be on 1.5°C compatible pathway if Indonesia depends on CCS and nuclear, developments of these technologies would need to start imminently for completion within this timeframe, which seems very unlikely. Fossil energy with CCS is not currently viable anywhere globally. Both fossil energy with CCS and nuclear energy also have serious sustainability concerns and are not expected to be able to compete with renewable energy in economic terms. Indonesia’s National Action Plan on Climate Change recognised that CCS could contribute up to 40% of the targeted energy sector’s emission reductions. CCS is gaining attention in the country as Indonesia’s state owned oil and natural gas company, Pertamina is planning to install CCS facilities installation in two of its oil and gas fields.¹⁰^,¹¹

The power sector would see a complete phase-out of coal from around 2030 with a small amount (<<0.5 EJ_primary) being used in other sectors until around 2040.¹² Gas would phase out from power from around 2035, drawing down across all sectors towards the end of the century.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Indonesia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	2015 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	840	933	449 397 to 579	263 245 to 314	199 174 to 210
Relative to reference year in %			-47% -53 to -31%	-69% -71 to -63%	-76% -79 to -75%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	565	631	292 263 to 356	159 61 to 184	42 16 to 94	2063
Relative to reference year in %			-48% -53 to -37%	-72% -89 to -67%	-93% -97 to -83%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT Scaling Up Climate Action Series. Climate Action Tracker. (2019). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021). ↩
Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050. Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050). (2021). ↩
Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Low Carbon Development : A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia. (2019). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches. ↩
Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050. Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050). (2021). ↩
Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT Scaling Up Climate Action Series. Climate Action Tracker. (2019). ↩
Ministry of Research. and H. E. Indonesia Center of excellence for ccs and ccus. 2017. ↩
Reuters. Indonesia carbon capture storage projects could need $500 mln, official says. Reuters. (2021). ↩
Fuentes, U. et al. Decarbonising South & South East Asia - Country Profile - Indonesia. (2019). ↩

What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Indonesia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Indonesia's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Indonesia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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