In 2017, three quarters of India’s primary energy supply came from fossil fuels, with coal dominating at over 40%, followed by oil (25%) and a small share of gas. The remaining energy comes mostly from traditional biomass use in residential sector (~15%) and renewables (~10%).
In a Paris Agreement compatible pathway, India would need to increase its share of renewable energy from a quarter of primary energy in 2017, to ~50% by 2030 and up to 80% by 2050. Other scenarios that do not consider non-energy use, show that India could increase its renewables share to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2050.
Across all scenarios, this would mean a step up in renewables deployment across all sectors from ~9 EJ/yr in 2019, up to 20 EJ/yr in 2030, and up to around 61 EJ/yr in 2050. This growth in renewables would enable a gradual reduction of fossil fuel-based primary energy from 76% in 2017 (~28 EJ/yr), to 46-63% (10–21 EJ/yr) by 2030, and 5-19% (6-10 EJ/yr) by 2050.
Our analysis show emissions from energy use could reach zero by 2050.
Pathways with faster reductions of unabated fossil fuel use and faster uptake of renewables within the ranges above are able to achieve 1.5°C compatibility without the use of negative emissions technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.
Pathways with a slower transition from fossils to renewables typically see carbon removal technologies deployed as early as the 2020s and scale up to significant levels in the following decades. Given the lead times and infrastructure investments required to bring this technology to fruition, it is unlikely that such fast rollouts can be achieved, meaning that even higher shares of carbon removal technologies would be needed later, or 1.5°C compatibility would no longer be achievable.