What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
In 2024, China’s industrial sector accounted for one-third of total emissions excluding LULUCF. Emissions come from both energy use and industrial processes, making industry China’s second largest emitting sector. The fossil fuel production sector accounted for an additional 8% of total emissions. In 2023, coal accounted for one-third, oil 19%, and gas 10% of the energy mix, supplying the sector’s fuel and feedstock demand, while electricity only accounted for 28% of the energy mix.
Recent analysis indicates that by Q3 2025, CO₂ emissions from the metals industry declined by 1% year-on-year, while cement emissions fell by 7%, largely reflecting reduced demand from the real estate sector.1 In contrast, emissions from the chemical industry increased by 12%, driven by higher coal and oil consumption for feedstock use.2
China's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares include both energy and non-energy use (eg. the use of oil to generate heat for industry use and as a feedstock to produce products such as plastics).
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Under the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, China’s industrial sector could approach full decarbonisation in the 2040s and achieve negative emissions from energy demand by 2060. This transition would reflect two key trends; a gradual decline in total industrial energy consumption after a peak around 2030, and a major shift in the sector’s energy mix.
By 2040, electricity would increase its share in the energy mix rapidly to over 50% (up from 28% in 2023) and continue to grow steadily thereafter. This reflects accelerated electrification across the industrial sector (including the widespread deployment of electric arc furnaces3 in steel production), which underpins the rapid phase-down of fossil fuels. To complement this shift, particularly in the hard-to-abate industries, and to support the near phase-out of coal by 2040 and of oil and gas by 2060 (for energy and feedstock use), bioenergy, hydrogen and synthetic fuels would need to scale up. Bioenergy and hydrogen would need to expand to around 11% and 12% of the energy mix respectively from 2040 onwards, while synthetic fuels to around 15% from 2060 onwards. Throughout the transition period, heat would consistently account for roughly 8%.
The government has implemented a number of initiatives to promote green power consumption, improve energy and resource efficiency, and strengthen the financial incentives for emissions reductions. These include promoting industrial clustering, mandating renewables consumption standards (ranging between 25-80% depending on the industry and location) and expanding the national emissions trading scheme to cover additional high-emitting industries.its recent cement production in Q3 2025 decreased by 8.6% year-on-year. 4,5 The government projects the fossil fuel–based chemicals industry will continue to expand until a peak around 2026, while the petrochemical industry is facing overcapacity issues.6,7 Recently, the government issued a plan to upgrade or phase out “outdated” petrochemical plants by 2029.8 Aligning with 1.5°C would require the sector to scale up electrification, accelerate green hydrogen deployment, and phase out fossil fuels.9
China's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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China's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathway, excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible path is based on the HPA scenario.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from the HPA scenario for China
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
2678
|
2066
|
1019
|
301
|
32
|
-75
|
-73
|
2042
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-23%
|
-62%
|
-89%
|
-99%
|
-103%
|
-103%
|
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
29
|
39
|
53
|
70
|
75
|
75
|
76
|
Fuel shares include both energy and non-energy use (eg. the use of oil to generate heat for industry use and as a feedstock to produce products such as plastics).
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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