What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary Energy
Primary energy
To accelerate decarbonisation in the coming decades, under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario China reduces its primary energy demand through increased electrification by 2040, after which demand would stabilise. This reduction in primary energy is driven by the greater energy efficiency of electrification technologies, which are 2-4 times more efficient than fossil fuel. Due to such superior energy efficiency, electrifying the energy system can even reduce the scale of energy demand, while meeting a growing demand for energy services. Growing electrification, with support from biomass and nuclear, would support a 2060 fossil fuel phase out. This requires China to restructure its economic growth model, scale up electrification and renewables, improve energy efficiency, and transition its primary energy mix, consistent with the levers highlighted in China’s Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy.1
China's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Although China has pledged to increase the share of non-fossil fuel consumption to over 30% by 2035,2 to align with 1.5°C non-fossil fuels would need to make up 50% of the primary energy mix by 2035, up from 13% in 2023. Government statistics show that China increased the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption by around 11% between 2011 and 2024.3 Based on this progress, China would still need to endeavour significantly to boost the non-fossil consumption in the coming decade to align with 1.5 °C.
Wind and solar would supply two-thirds of primary energy by 2040 and over 80% by 2050, effectively displacing coal from the energy system by 2050. Oil, which supplied 18% of the energy mix in 2023, would gradually phase out by 2060, while gas would contribute around 10% of primary energy mix by 2040, before approaching phase out by 2060.
Government projections suggest that coal consumption will peak and plateau around 2027.4 Consumption of refined oil products for fuel use has already peaked, largely due to the rapid uptake of EVs.5 However, oil consumption for feedstocks especially in the chemical industry will continue to grow, leading to an overall oil consumption peak around 2026.6 Coal is likely to remain in China’s energy system, particularly in the power sector, but its use has already declined as renewables become increasingly cost-competitive. This trend will likely continue as the inclusion of battery storage units in the capacity payment mechanism is expected to further enhance renewables’ competitiveness with respect to coal.7,8