Future Pathway

Current trends and future pathway

One of China’s core policies is to peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and to reduce its 2035 economy-wide net emissions by 7-10% relative to the peak. ¹^,² Under current policies and trends, this would mean emissions peak around 14.6-15.3 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030, then fall down to a range of 12.7-13.8 GtCO₂e/yr by 2035 (excluding LULUCF).

However, this policy trajectory is not aligned with 1.5°C , which would require emissions to peak at around 15.2 GtCO₂e/yr by 2025, followed by a rapid decline to roughly 11.9 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030 and 7.2 GtCO₂e by 2035 (excluding LULUCF). The Highest Possible Ambition scenario also foresees continued, deep reductions post-2035, with emissions dropping by over three quarters below 2023 levels by 2040 and 92% by 2050 (excluding LULUCF).

As a significant step beyond its 2030 NDC target, China's 2035 NDC target extends coverage to all gases and the entire economy. However, the undefined peak year introduces uncertainty and setting a clear economy-wide peaking target for all GHGs would strengthen policy signals and accelerate decarbonisation.³

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2026-2030), which set national and regional policy priorities for 2026-2030, targets a carbon intensity reduction of around 3.8% in 2026 and 17% by 2030, highlighting a continued focus on energy efficiency improvements.⁴^,⁵ This target is lower than the 18% reduction target for the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2021-2025) and could allow for a 3% emissions growth by 2030.⁶

China has also issued action plans to control methane and hydrofluorocarbons and is developing an monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system, though further capacity building and international collaboration will be needed.⁷^,⁸^,⁹

Because uncertainties around large-scale deployment of CCS technologies could increase long-term decarbonisation costs, China would need to prioritise readily available and cost-effective measures, including scaling up renewables, phasing out fossil fuels, accelerating economy-wide electrification, and strengthening energy efficiency improvements.¹⁰^,¹¹

China's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2005
2010

Target Year

2030
2035

*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.

Graph description

The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2025
- NDC incl. LULUCF: China assumptions

Long term pathway

The HPA scenario requires significant emissions cuts globally between now and 2040 to achieve net zero CO₂ before 2040 and reach net zero GHG emissions in the 2060s, minimizing overshoot of the 1.5ºC limit. While we currently do not specify country-level CDR results, we find that it is a key lever at the global scale. The HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR deployment from the 2030s onwards, which is critical to achieving net-negative CO₂ emissions. While we currently do not show country-level CDR results, we find that it is a key lever at the global scale. Further details on our approach to CDR, including sustainability and feasibility bounds and the role of the land sector can be found in the methodology and our report Rescuing 1.5ºC: New Evidence on the Highest Possible Ambition to Deliver the Paris Agreement.¹²

To be 1.5°C compatible, by 2060 China’s total emissions would need to fall by 95% from 2005 levels, reaching 0.4 GtCO₂e/yr, while CO₂ emissions would become negative at -0.4 GtCO₂/yr (excluding LULUCF), going beyond China’s long-term goal of CO₂ neutrality by 2060.¹³

Achieving net-zero total emissions and net-negative CO₂ emissions would require a well-sequenced decarbonisation strategy. This involves first prioritising the systematic greening of energy use, followed by cost-effective contributions to global emissions reduction and lastly deploying CDR to compensate for the residual CO₂ emissions.

The implementation involves effectively phasing out coal by 2050, and oil and gas by 2060, with non-fossil fuels supplying almost the entire energy mix by 2060, 90% of which would come from wind and solar. Despite this transition, residual emissions (primarily CH₄ and N₂O emissions from agriculture, waste, and industrial processes) would still exist at a minimum level at around 0.4 GtCO₂e/yr by 2060.

Addressing these residual emissions would require a balanced approach: prioritising cost-effective international contributions to global emissions reduction, while using CDR technologies as a last resort. Overall, China should prioritise reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and scaling up already cost-effective renewables in the short term and avoid overreliance on costly CDR technologies.

It is also worth noting that while our HPA scenario does not account for the LULUCF carbon sink, a recent study estimates that four forestation targets could achieve a carbon sink of −0.35 ± 0.04 GtCO₂ per year in 2060.¹⁴ With China’s policy support, including its 2030 and 2035 forest stock volume targets and the Implementation Plan for Consolidating and Enhancing Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Capacity, the country could potentially meet its 2060 CO₂ neutrality target even with limited adoption of CDR technologies.¹⁵^,¹⁶^,¹⁷

China submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC in October 2021. This includes targets for CO₂ neutrality and plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption to over 80% by 2060.¹⁸

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathway. The 1.5°C compatible pathway is based on the HPA scenario and shows total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2025. Last inventory year: 2023.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks for China. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2005
2010

LULUCF

Excluded
Included

Indicator	2005 Reference year	2023	2030	2035	2040	2050	2060	2070
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	8442	15008	11952	7194	3655	1188	405	40
Relative to reference year in %			42%	-15%	-57%	-86%	-95%	-100%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	5840	10740	8473	4521	1664	125	-401	-589
Relative to reference year in %			45%	-23%	-72%	-98%	-107%	-110%
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	7688		3900 to 5639	3028 to 3949	1970 to 3093	280 to 1303	-54 to 618	-471 to 661
Relative to reference year in %			-49 to -27%	-61 to -49%	-74 to -60%	-96 to -83%	-101 to -92%	-106 to -91%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	5087		-8052 to -6312	-4166 to -3245	-1686 to -562	-907 to 115	-458 to 213	-510 to 621
Relative to reference year in %			-258 to -224%	-182 to -164%	-133 to -111%	-118 to -98%	-109 to -96%	-110 to -88%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Methodology
- How are emissions benchmarks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions, NDC and current policies projections: Climate Action Tracker 2025
- Download data as CSV

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What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Current trends and future pathway

China's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

China's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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