What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, direct CO₂ emissions from transport would halve by 2035 relative to 2023 levels, followed by full decarbonisation around 2055. This transition would be supported by continued reductions in energy demand through increased electrification, stricter energy-efficiency standards, modal shifts in transport, and shorter commuting distances associated with urbanisation and economic development.

Under the HPA scenario, enhanced electrification results in significant energy savings, as electricity is far more efficient than fossil fuels in powering a vehicle. As a result, total sector energy demand would fall by nearly one third by 2035 and 44% by 2050, compared to 2023 levels. At the same time, the sector’s energy mix would need to shift significantly, with oil gradually phased down until a full phase out by 2060 and electrification rising to around 40% of the mix by 2035, increasing to 74% by 2050 and stabilising roughly at that level thereafter.

Climate policies in China’s transport sector are consistent with the 1.5°C compatible pathway. In its 2025 NDC, China set a qualitative target for new energy vehicles (NEVs) to become the mainstream of new vehicle sales by 2035.³3^,44

Due to continued policy support, technological advances, and financial subsidies, NEV production and sales surged in 2025, reaching 16.6 million and 16.5 million units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 29% and 28%.⁵5 China has maintained the world’s largest NEV market for 11 consecutive years.⁶6 By the end of 2025, there were 44 million NEVs in China, accounting for 12% of the total vehicle fleet, and over 3.4 million vehicles were exported that year.⁷7^,88 In 2024, China accounted for roughly 40% of global EV exports.⁹9

As of January 2026, China has tightened energy consumption limits for electric vehicles and introduced stricter fuel-efficiency standards for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.¹⁰10^{, 11}11 Although financial incentives through trade-in subsidies and purchase tax exemptions have started to decline in 2026, the government aims to install 28 million charging points with more than 300 GW of capacity to serve around 80 million EVs by 2027.¹²12^,1313^,1414 China is also piloting vehicle-to-grid technologies, enabling EVs to function as distributed energy storage and support the development of a new-type power system.¹⁵15^,1616 If technological and infrastructure development continues to progress, scaling up transport sector electrification based on renewables could also accelerate power sector decarbonisation and reduce China’s fossil fuel consumption and dependency.