What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario,²2 energy demand (primarily for heating and cooling) in the buildings sector broadly stabilises at around 19,000 PJ/yr until 2040 as the efficiency gains from increased electrification, which in turn pushes fossil fuels out of the system, is counterbalanced by an increased demand, before increasing out to 2070 possibly driven by increased EV charging demand and increased adoption of heat pumps. Meanwhile, CO₂ emissions would decline steadily, approaching near full decarbonisation by 2040. This is driven by the rapid coal phase-out by 2030 and near elimination of oil by 2040, alongside accelerated electrification, with electricity expanding to nearly 70% of the energy mix by 2040. By 2050, gas would also approach phase-out, while electricity further expands its share to around 85%. Heat remains the second largest energy source throughout the transition, with supply sourced from geothermal and potentially recovered waste heat from nearby industrial clusters. This aligns with China’s action plan to scale up zero-carbon industrial parks, which promote urban-industrial symbiosis by recovering and utilising residual heat to supply surrounding urban area.³3

China’s buildings sector is on track to align with the HPA scenario through electrification of cooling and heating via heat pumps, district heating, solar thermal technology adoption and energy efficiency measures – including efficiency retrofits, strengthened energy efficiency standards for heat pumps, water chillers, air-conditioning units, – and trade-in subsidy programmes that encourage households to replace older appliances with more energy-efficient models.⁴4^,55^,66^,77^,88