Power sector in 2030
The power sector would need to be fully decarbonised by 2030 and contribute to negative emissions thereafter to be on 1.5°C compatible. Achieving such a pathway will require ramping up renewable energy in Canada’s power generation from 67% in 2017, to 91–99% by 2030, an earlier phase-out of coal than is currently planned (by 2026, not 2030), and phasing out natural gas between 2026-2033, which the government has not yet considered. Continuing to invest in fossil fuels puts the country at risk of carbon lock-in and high-cost stranded assets.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The power sector could reach a fully decarbonised power sector by 2030 and become a source of net negative emissions thereafter. To be 1.5°C compatible, the carbon intensity of the power sector would need to reach -10 to -20 gCO₂e/kWh by 2050. This would require Canada to achieve 91-99% renewable energy in the power mix by 2030 and 99-100% by 2050 and contribute to negative emissions thereafter, allowing to balance emissions from other sectors such as agriculture.