The emissions reduction goal for 2030 of 29% (excl. LULUCF) below 1990 levels presented in the recently adopted 2040 Poland Energy Policy falls significantly short of being 1.5°C compatible. This is significantly less ambitious than the EU goal, that Poland has agreed to contribute to achieving, which requires emissions decrease at more than twice this speed until 2030. Poland’s emissions per capita are on average already higher than of the EU. Should Poland fail to increase its emissions reduction goal, its emissions per capita in 2030 would be almost twice that of the EU average, reflecting a much lower level of ambition.,
To be compatible with the 1.5°C limit, Poland’s emissions need to decrease in 2030 by between 55-66% below 1990 levels. Poland has the capacity and the capability to reduce emissions at this speed, not the least due to the significant financial support from the EU. Replacing coal and natural gas by renewables, energy efficiency, and green hydrogen creates an opportunity for Poland to not only reduce emissions but also recover from the economic crisis, improve air quality, and reduce energy dependency.
Long term pathway
Poland does not have in place any long-term net zero target. To be 1.5°C compatible, Poland should reach emissions reductions of 83% by 2040 below 1990 levels and its CO₂ emissions should reach zero already in the 2040s, when considering LULUCF sinks at their current levels. Current policies would see Poland reduce GHGs emissions by around 43% by 2040, instead of the 83% below 1990 levels required to be 1.5°C compatible, with no emissions reduction plans for beyond 2040.,
1.5°C scenarios show that the major contribution to remaining emissions in 2050 comes from agriculture, which is responsible for almost all non-CO₂ emissions together with waste. Poland will need to balance its remaining emissions by mid-century through the development of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as the land sector.