What is India's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
India's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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India signed the COP26 100% EV declaration and has set ambitious targets for 2030, including achieving a 30% share of EV penetration in the private car market, a 70% share in commercial vehicles, a 40% share in buses, and an 80% share in two and three-wheeled vehicles.
The Deep Electrification pathway – which best captures the potential for electrification of the sector with share of electricity in transport energy mix reaching 47% in 2040 and 76% in 2050. This scenario also shows the greatest reduction in emissions due to a high share of renewables in the power mix. The uptake of electric vehicle (EV) is to be supported by subsidies and a rollout of charging infrastructure.3 India has implemented several policy measures to accelerate the adoption of EVs by offering subsidies to lower the initial purchase cost of EVs.
The most scalable cuts in oil use come from electrification of two and three wheelers, urban buses, last-mile delivery. Infrastructure development by introducing corridor charging as the backbone for long-distance travel. Align tariffs, grid upgrades, and fleet-finance instruments with these priorities to translate the Deep Electrification pathway into near-term, system-level emissions reductions.
Since 2020, EV sales in India have seen a rapid increase, mainly in the two and three-wheeler segment. Notably, in 2024-25 the share of electric two and three-wheeler sales was 79% of total EV sales. However, despite this increase, EV penetration remains relatively low: around 6% in the two-wheeler segment, roughly 20% in three-wheelers, and just 2.5% in four wheelers.4 India is actively expanding its charging infrastructure to support this transition.5
India has one of the longest rail networks in world and by 2023 had electrified 45% of the network, far ahead of many developed countries.6 Indian Railways aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2030.
While these pathways see some remaining oil in the mix by 2050, it could be further reduced by the introduction of synthetic fuels, which are not modelled in these pathways. They are however associated with large energy requirements, which could limit their scale-up.
India's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for India
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
324
|
402 to
570
|
394 to
653
|
290 to
663
|
164 to
527
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
24 to
76%
|
22 to
102%
|
-10 to
105%
|
-49 to
63%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
2
|
5 to
5
|
8 to
18
|
11 to
47
|
24 to
76
|
|
Share of biofuels
%
|
3
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
2
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
3
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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