In November 2021 during COP26, India published an updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) with a raised unconditional target of reducing the emissions intensity of the country’s GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030. The previous target was 33-35%. Additionally, India announced a conditional target to increase non-fossil capacity in its power sector to 500 GW by 2030, subject to international support.

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²⁸ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

²⁹ The generation share was translated to approximate capacity shares based on an assumption of a similar split across technologies as the 175 GW target.

³⁰ Analysed pathways assume the development of negative emissions technologies – BECCS – thus the year of zero emissions provided might be reached earlier than when 100% of the power mix is based from renewables and represent a ‘net zero emissions’ year.

³¹ Analysed pathways assume the development of negative emissions technologies – BECCS – thus the year of zero emissions provided might be reached earlier than when 100% of the power mix is based from renewables and represent a ‘net zero emissions’ year.

The conditional target, if enacted, would increase the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 116% above 2005 levels to 3.9 GtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF. This means lower total emissions than the unconditional intensity target. However, the conditional target is not ambitious enough as it is in line with India’s current policy scenario.

It needs to be emphasised that closing the gap between India’s current fair share as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker and it’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emission pathway will require substantial financial and other support from developed countries.

1.5°C compatible pathways see India reaching GHG emissions levels of 0.5-0.7 GtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2050, and CO₂ emissions of 0-0.4 GtCO₂/yr by 2050, excluding LULUCF. This equals emissions reductions of 60-70% and 66-93%, respectively below 2005 levels.²⁸

On the road to net zero, India will need to develop its land-based sinks to compensate for its remaining emissions. In addition, international support will need to be provided for technological carbon dioxide removal approaches such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or direct air capture and storage (DAC).

Our analysis shows that power sector may need to contribute up to 0.2 GtCO₂/yr negative emissions by mid-century to be on a 1.5°C pathway. However, this is dependent on the speed with which zero carbon technologies can be adopted before 2050. Pathways with renewable electricity shares near 80% in 2030 achieve the required emissions reductions to avoid negative emissions technologies.

India does not have a net zero target, nor has it yet submitted a long-term low emissions strategy.¹