India’s NDC sets an unconditional target for the emissions intensity of its GDP – aiming for a 33-35% reduction from 2005 levels. Additionally, it pledged conditional target to increase non-fossil capacity in its power sector to 40% by 2030, subject to international support.
India’s conditional target, if enacted, would increase GHG emissions by 146-152% above 2005 levels to emissions levels of 4.7-4.8 GtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF. While still not achieving reductions, if realised, this target would see lower total emissions than its intensity target.
As of October 2021, India has not yet communicated an updated, more ambitious NDC, missing the 2021 NDC Synthesis Report deadline ahead of COP26.
For India’s domestic emissions to be in line with 1.5°C, they would need to peak soon and reduce as early as possible, aiming for a 2030 emissions level of 1.6 GtCO₂e/yr, equivalent to 16% below 2005 levels (range of 23-1%) below 2005 levels.
It needs to be emphasised that closing the gap between India’s current fair share as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker and its 1.5°C compatible domestic emission pathway will require support from developed countries.
1.5°C compatible pathways see India reaching GHG emissions levels of 0.4-0.7 GtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2050, and CO₂ emissions of 0-0.2 GtCO₂/yr by 2050, excluding LULUCF. This equals emissions reductions of 65-77% and 86-98%, respectively below 2005 levels.
On the road to net zero, the country will need to compensate its remaining emissions through the development of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as land sinks.
Our analysis shows that power sector may need to contribute up to 0.2 GtCO₂/yr negative emissions by mid-century to be on a 1.5°C pathway. However, this is dependent on the speed with which zero carbon technologies can be adopted before 2050. Pathways with renewable electricity shares near 80% in 2030 achieve the required emissions reductions to avoid negative emissions technologies.
India does not have a net zero target, nor has it submitted a long-term low emissions strategy.