What is the European Union's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power

Decarbonising the power sector

The power sector contributes to 24% of the EU’s total GHG emissions. The EU has made progress in scaling up renewables in the power sector, with renewables providing almost 44% of electricity generation in 2023 (up from 38% in 2021).1 Solar has been performing well, but deployment of wind energy is not fast enough to meet the EU’s targets.2, 3

the European Union's power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling

  • Graph description

    Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023.

    Methodology

    Data References

In all pathways, renewables in the power sector would rapidly scale up, with their share almost doubling from 2023 levels by 2030 to align with 1.5°C. The Deep Electrification pathway envisages renewables generating 87% of the EU’s electricity by 2030. The demand for renewable electricity under this pathway grows significantly by 2050 as the transport, industry and buildings end-use sectors become increasingly electrified.

The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway envisions lower growth in electricity demand, which can be achieved by increased energy efficiency. Even with stronger energy efficiency measures which would see growth in 2030 electricity demand increase by 10%, the share of renewables would need to reach 84% over the same period to align with 1.5°C. The EU estimates that it will need to achieve a 69% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030, with 55% coming from wind and solar to meet the goals of the Renewable Energy Directive.4,5 This is not sufficient to align with 1.5°C pathways.

As renewable deployment grows, coal is essentially phased out as early as 2025, with coal’s share falling to less than 1% by 2030 across all pathways. A fossil gas phase-out would occur between 2030 and 2035. Current trends suggest that the current phasing out of coal and gas in power generation is far too slow to meet this target. 6

the European Union's power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit

Power capacity investments

Renewables accounted for 62% of the EU’s installed power capacity in 2024, amounting to 702GW. This represents a roughly 35% increase from 2021.7 In 2024 solar investments fell by 13% from 2023 levels.8

In all 1.5°C compatible pathways, renewable capacity in the power sector increases significantly between 2026 and 2050. Most of these investments would be directed to wind and solar, while biomass and other renewables see reducing capacity and investments after 2030.

Following the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway, cumulative renewable capacity increases by 140% in 2030 compared to 2021. Following the Deep Electrification pathway, renewables grow by 214%. Expressed in investments needs, the Minimal CDR Reliance pathway offers the lowest investment mobilisation in the power sector at USD 164 billion annually from now until 2030. Following the Deep Electrification pathway, investment needs reach higher levels at USD 240 billion annually by 2030. By 2040 this falls to USD 187 billion annually.

In 2025, the EU released its Affordable Energy Action Plan seeking to reduce the price of renewables.9 The plan indicates that the EU will need EUR 570 (USD 650) billion annually from 2021 to 2030 and EUR 690 (USD 785) billion annually from 2031 to 2040 for renewable energy investments including grid infrastructure. According to the Commission’s 2040 target impact assessment from 2024, the estimated costs for power supply (excluding grid investment needs) were EUR 295 (USD 335) billion annually between 2031 and 2040.10

Positively, the EU’s estimated investment needs for transition its power sector to renewables falls well within what all 1.5°C compatible pathways, even when excluding grid investment needs. However, EU wide subsidies into renewables tell a different story, having decreased from EUR 89 (USD 100) billion in 2020 to EUR 61 (USD 70) billion in 2023.11 However, the estimated investment costs put forward by the EU so far are not formally or legally binding in law and will be crucial points in the upcoming EU budget negotiations for 2028-2034.

the European Union's renewable electricity investments and capacities

Billion USD / yr

Scaling

Dimension

  • Graph description

    Average annual investments in power sector renewable electricity capacity and cumulative installed power capacities across time under 1.5°C compatible pathways downscaled at country levels.

    Methodology

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for the European Union

Indicator
2022
2030
2035
2040
2050
Power sector decarbonised by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
207
16 to 20
0 to 8
-4 to 5
-9 to 0
2034 to 2040
Relative to reference year in %
-92 to -90%
-100 to -96%
-102 to -98%
-104 to -100%
Indicator
2022
2030
2035
2040
2050
Share of unabated coal
%
17
0 to 0
0 to 0
0 to 0
0 to 0
Share of unabated gas
%
19
3 to 4
1 to 2
0 to 2
0 to 1
Share of renewable energy
%
39
84 to 87
90 to 94
91 to 96
93 to 99

BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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