Fossil fuels accounted for 92% of Egypt’s power mix in 2017. Paris compatible pathways would require the power sector to be fully decarbonised by around 2040 and contribute to negative emissions thereafter.
This could be achieved through the phase out of natural gas in the power sector between 2036 and 2039. Egypt’s 2017 NDC includes fossil fuel options, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and upgrading fossil fuel plants. Considering the long lifetimes and decreasing competitiveness of fossil fuel plants, these measures come with the risk of stranded assets and locking into high-cost, high-emission technologies.
Decarbonisation of the power sector would need to be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass), from a share of 8% in 2017 to 78–95% by 2030, and reaching 100% before 2050. This stands in strong contrast with the Egypt’s Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy 2035 targeting a share of 42% in power generation by 2035, less than half-way through Paris compatible benchmarks.
Considering Egypt’s ambition to serve as a regional energy hub exporting electricity to other African countries and Europe, and these countries’ increasing appetite for renewable energy, Egypt would benefit from an expansion of renewables in their power sector.5,6
Key power sector benchmarks
Renewables shares and year of zero emissions power Including the use of BECCS
- 2022 20 % Renewable share
- 2030 78 to 95% Renewable share
- 2035 42 % Renewable share
- 2035-2039 Zero emissions power
- 2040 99 % Renewable share