1.5°C compatible pathways
China’s NDC aims to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030, reduce carbon intensity by over 65% from 2005 levels, and increase non-fossil fuels energy share to around 25%. This is estimated to result in emissions of 13.4-14.7 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF, or 72-88% above 2005 levels.4
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require China’s GHG emissions to peak almost immediately and fall by around 18% below 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF – confirming results from previous studies. This translates to an emissions level of around 6.4 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030.3 This means that China would need to close a 2030 emissions gap of around 7 GtCO₂e/yr to be 1.5°C compatible.
Carbon dioxide emissions alone would need to decline to about 5.2 GtCO₂/yr by 2030, excluding LULUCF. Based on current GDP projections, a 1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions level would correspond to a carbon intensity reduction of 80-85% below 2005 levels by 2030.39 In order to close the gap between this 1.5°C compatible level and the NDC target, China would have to make stronger efforts in its energy and industrial process sectors.
China’s 14th Five Year Plan, covering the years 2021 to 2025, has set a target to reduce current carbon intensity by 18% over those years.20 China beat its previous five year target (also an 18% reduction), achieving an 18.8% reduction between 2015 and 2020.21 Achieving the 14th Five Year Plan carbon intensity target and a further 18% reduction between 2026 and 2030 would allow China to achieve its proposed NDC update target. However, a greater reduction would be necessary to be 1.5°C compatible.
Long term pathway
China submitted an official Long-Term Strategy (LTS) to the UNFCCC in October 2021. This includes the target of carbon neutrality by 2060.25 This target likely covers CO₂ only, rather than all GHGs.4,40
To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathways, China’s CO₂ emissions, excluding LULUCF, need to be 91% below 2005 levels by 2050, or 549 MtCO₂/yr by 2050. GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, would need to reach 1611 MtCO₂e/yr in 2050, a reduction of 79% below 2005 levels.
Remaining GHG emissions will need to be balanced using carbon dioxide removal approaches (CDR), including sustainable afforestation/reforestation, direct air capture, or sustainable bioenergy coupled with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
Of the 1.5°C compatible illustrative pathways analysed, negative emissions from industrial processes feature prominently in those scenarios which assume a high global reliance on CDR, particularly after 2040. The scenario which assumes low global CDR and high energy demand has agriculture as the leading emitting sector after 2040, followed by industry, and these emissions are offset by negative emissions in the energy sector.
1 The People’s Republic of China. China’s Achievements, New Goals and New Measures for Nationally Determined Contributions. 2021.
2 Climate Action Tracker. China. November 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
3 Yvonne Deng, Ursula Fuentes, Hare, B., Welder, L. & Gidden, M. U.S. and China Climate Goals : Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century. 2020.
4 Climate Action Tracker. China. May 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
5 Liu, Q. et al. Pathway and policy analysis to China’s deep decarbonization. Chinese J. Popul. Resour. Environ. 15, 39–49 (2017).
6 Zheng, X. et al. Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 117, 29–36 (2020).
7 IEA. Key World Energy Statistics. 2021.
8 Bahr, A. China’s coal capacity surge need not be at odds with ambitious climate action. China Dialogue. 2020.
9 Myllyvirta, L., Zhang, S. & Shen, X. Analysis: Will China build hundreds of new coal plants in the 2020s? Carbon Brief. 2020).
10 Global Energy Monitor et al. Boom and Bust Coal 2022. 2022.
11 Climate Action Tracker. New momentum reduces emissions gap, but huge gap remains – analysis. Climate Action Tracker. 2021.
12 Reuters. China to cut coal use share below 56% in 2021. Reuters. 2021.
13 Wang, C. N. Brief: Coal phase-out in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): an analysis of Chinese-backed coal power from 2014-2020. 2021.
14 Wang, C. N. China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment report 2021. Green BRI Center, International Institute of Green Finance (IIGF). 2022.
15 Kusmer, A. China launches world’s largest carbon market. PRI. 2021.
16 Farand, C. China launches world’s largest carbon market for power sector. Climate Home News. 2021.
17 Jinping, X. Full Text: Remarks by Chinese President Xi Jinping at Leaders Summit on Climate. Xinhuanet. 2021.
18 Xinhua. China unveils plan for new energy vehicle industry. Xinhuanet. 2021.
19 Lutsey, N., Cui, H. & Yu, R. Evaluating Electric Vehicle Costs and Benefits in China in the 2020 – 2035 Time Frame. 2021.
20 Liu, H., Liu, J. & You, X. Q&A: What does China’s 14th ‘five year plan’ mean for climate change? Carbon Brief. 2021.
21 Xu, M. & Singh, S. China cuts ‘carbon intensity’ 18.8% in past five years, in effort to rein in emissions. Reuters. 2021.
22 IEA. Coal Information: Overview. 2020.
23 World Resources Institute. Accelerating the Net-Zero Transition: Strategic Action for China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.20.00018.
24 IEA. Renewables 2021 Analysis and forecasts to 2026. 2021.
25 The People’s Republic of China. China’s Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy. 2021.
26 IEA. World Energy Outlook 2021. 2021.
27 Murphy, B. Outline of the People’s Republic of China 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Long-Range Objectives for 2035 (English translation). 2021.
28 Yu, Y. Renewable Energy in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan: Five Changes. Energy Iceberg. 2021.
29 Hu, Y. & Cheng, H. The urgency of assessing the greenhouse gas budgets of hydroelectric reservoirs in China. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 708–712. 2013.
30 Li, S., Zhang, Q., Bush, R. T. & Sullivan, L. A. Methane and CO2 emissions from China’s hydroelectric reservoirs: a new quantitative synthesis. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 22, 5325–5339. 2015.
31 Xie, X., Jiang, X., Zhang, T. & Huang, Z. Regional water footprints assessment for hydroelectricity generation in China. Renew. Energy 138, 316–325. 2019.
32 Yuefang, D. & Steil, S. China Three Gorges Project resettlement: Policy, planning and implementation. J. Refug. Stud. 16, 422–434. 2003.
33 Lewis, C. China’s Great Dam Boom: A Major Assult on Its Rivers. Yale Environment 360. 2013.
34 Yu, Y. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan for Power Industries (2): No Plans for Wind, Solar & Hydro? Energy Iceberg. 2020.
35 IEA. An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China. 2021.
36 Sandalow, D. Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2019. 2019.
37 Koty, A. C. What is the China Standards 2035 Plan and How Will it Impact Emerging Industries? China Briefing. 2020.
38 China Dialogue. National carbon market expansion may be delayed to 2023. China Dialogue. 2022.
39 The assessment of GDP carbon intensity follows from that conducted in previous analysis but here we have updated data on historical carbon emissions (using the PRIMAP 2021 database), GDP (using Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2021), and GDP growth projections (from World Bank). The GDP growth rate from 2025-2030 is assumed to be 5% p.a.
40 If only covering CO₂, the target would lead to around 2050 MtCO₂e p.a. in 2060 (excluding LULUCF) or emissions reductions of around 75% below 2005 levels. If the target were to cover all GHG emissions, 2060 emissions would be around 600 MtCO₂e p.a. (excluding LULUCF), or around 92% below 2005 levels.3 The 0.1°C of additional warming by 2100 would be a result of the difference in cumulative emissions between an emissions pathway which follow a carbon neutrality target (leading to greater cumulative emissions) versus a GHG neutrality target (leading to less cumulative emissions).
41 Includes electricity and hydrogen. For it to be zero emissions, it would need to be produced out of renewable energies only.
Chinaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Energy system transformation
China’s updated NDC update aims to increase the share of non-fossil sources in total primary energy consumption to 25% by 2030. In 2019, non-fossil sources (renewables, biomass, nuclear) made up 12% of primary energy supply while coal made up 61%.
China’s coal consumption tripled between 2000 and 2013, and since 2007 the country has accounted for around 50% of the world’s coal consumption.22 In 2019, China used coal mostly for the production of electric power and heat (45% of total consumption) and manufacturing (46%). Of the coal used in manufacturing, 26% was for the processing of petroleum, coal, and other fuels.
To realise a 1.5°C compatible pathway that avoids high reliance on carbon dioxide removal approaches in the future, China would have to double its 2030 non-fossil target. Some 1.5°C pathways with a lower penetration of renewable energy rely on the development and utilisation of nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, there is no fossil fuel–fired power generation with large-scale CCS in operation or in construction in China and this technology is currently not a commercially viable option in the power sector.3 Conversely, there is clear potential for a continued rapid scale-up of renewables.
Switching from a reliance on coal in the power sector to renewables and improving energy efficiency in industrial processes are proven and cost controllable options for China to achieve deep emissions reductions.23
With regards to heating, China has recently seen rapid growth in the deployment of renewable energy, both in the building and industry sectors. The IEA projects this growth to continue and for the country to also take up renewable district heating in the near future.24
Chinaʼs primary energy mix
petajoule per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Chinaʼs total CO₂ emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for China. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
Indicator | 2005 Reference year | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year | 7 809 | 13 468 | 6 400 5 828 to 8 120 | 3 188 2 113 to 3 421 | 1 611 1 349 to 1 777 | |
Relative to reference year in % | −18% −25 to 4% | −59% −73 to −56% | −79% −83 to −77% | |||
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr | 6 025 | 11 088 | 5 243 4 816 to 6 509 | 2 490 851 to 2 914 | 549 207 to 1 439 | 2067 2056 |
Relative to reference year in % | −13% −20 to 8% | −59% −86 to −52% | −91% −97 to −76% |