What is China's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
Raising ambition
In 2023, China’s GHG emissions reached 15.8 GtCO₂e/yr (excluding LULUCF). The country’s 2030 NDC target is not aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, which would require emissions to fall to 7.3 GtCO₂e/yr by 2030 when excluding LULUCF. Achieving the 2022 NDC targets would result in 13.8-15.5 GtCO₂e/yr in 2030 when excluding LULUCF, which is a long way off from being 1.5°C compatible.1
China released its 2035 target on 25 September, 2025 and submitted to the UNFCCC in November. China’s new 2035 NDC marks a shift from intensity-based targets to, for the first time, an absolute emissions reduction goal. The new target commits to reducing economy-wide net GHG emissions by 7–10% from peak levels by 2035. The 7-10% target can be seen as not ambitious enough as it is not driving emissions beyond what current policy trajectory aiming to achieve, a 10-16% decline between 2025 and 2035 (excluding LULUCF).2
Full analysis of this NDC is in progress.
China’s GHG emissions under 1.5°C compatible pathways would further fall to 5.4 GtCO2e (36% below 2005 levels) by 2035 when excluding LULUCF, or 3.9 GtCO2e (49% below 2005 levels) when including LULUCF. Under current policies, China’s 2035 emissions are projected to be 12.3-14.2 GtCO₂e/yr (46-68% above 2005 levels) when excluding LULUCF.
The 1.5°C compatible pathways range suggests that CO2 emissions should have peaked in 2020 at 10.2 GtCO2/yr. While it is a good sign that renewables have put China’s CO2 emissions on a reversed trend for the first time in the first half of 2025, its growing coal consumption from the coal-to-chemicals industry suggest that China would need to strengthen its post-peak action to bridge the ambition gap.3,4
China's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*These pathways reflect the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in 1.5ºC compatible pathways. For developing countries, achieving these reductions may well rely on receiving significant levels of international support. In order to achieve their 'fair share' of climate action, developed countries would also need to support emissions reductions in developing countries.
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Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology (excluding LULUCF)
Data References (excluding LULUCF)
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Long term pathway
China submitted a long-term strategy to the UNFCCC in October 2021. This includes targets for carbon neutrality and plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption to over 80% by 2060. To be 1.5°C compatible, China’s CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) would be 97% below 2005 levels by 2060, or 174 MtCO₂/yr by 2060. Remaining emissions would be balanced by the deployment of land sinks or other carbon dioxide removal approaches to get to net zero.
China’s 2021 NDC set a target to increase forest stock volume by 6 billion m³ above 2005 levels by 2030, which has been met five years ahead of schedule. In 2021, total LULUCF sinks stood at around 1346 MtCO2/yr, corresponding to around 12.5% of total CO2 emissions that year (excluding LULUCF).5 Therefore China cannot only rely on carbon sinks to achieve net zero. Direct emissions reductions in its energy and industrial sectors will be required to reach net zero (see our LULUCF sector analysis here). In its 2035 target submission China pledge to increase forest stock volume by 6 billion m³ by 2030 compared to 2005 levels (at around 18.5 billion m³).
China's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for China. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC AR6 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
8437
|
15779
|
5452 to
7251
|
4422 to
5435
|
3396 to
4463
|
1287 to
2292
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-35 to
-14%
|
-48 to
-36%
|
-60 to
-47%
|
-85 to
-73%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
5825
|
11465
|
3465 to
4804
|
2718 to
3562
|
1958 to
2828
|
410 to
1292
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-41 to
-18%
|
-53 to
-39%
|
-66 to
-51%
|
-93 to
-78%
|
||
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
7683
|
3900 to
5639
|
3028 to
3949
|
1970 to
3093
|
280 to
1303
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-49 to
-27%
|
-61 to
-49%
|
-74 to
-60%
|
-96 to
-83%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
5072
|
-1552 to
-1611
|
-1394 to
-1486
|
-1426 to
-1370
|
-1007 to
-990
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-131 to
-132%
|
-127 to
-129%
|
-128 to
-127%
|
-120 to
-120%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
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