In July 2021, Canada updated its NDC target under the Paris Agreement setting an economy wide emission reduction target of at least 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, including an estimated LULUCF contribution of -27 MtCO₂e/yr., This results in a target of 36-41% below 2005 levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF.
Canada’s updated NDC reduces the 2030 ambition gap compared to its 2017 NDC, but further reductions are still needed. The country would need to achieve up to 52-63% emissions reductions below 2005 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF, to get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Canada is not on track to meet its new NDC target with its current policies likely to only achieve a 14-17% reduction in emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF, falling far below its NDC target and a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
A fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require Canada to go further than its domestic target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.
Canada has a target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 and in June 2021, passed legislation to enshrine this target into law.,, The extent to which the government intends to rely on the land sector as a sink (and therefore what residual emissions are expected) is unclear.
To be 1.5°C compatible, Canada will need to reduce its emissions to around 88-94% below 2005 by 2050 (excluding LULUCF). Canada will need to strengthen its 2030 target and implement additional policies to achieve its net zero GHG target.