To be 1.5°C compatible, Canada needs to phase coal out of its electricity supply by 2026 and natural gas between 2026-2030. The government’s current plans are not consistent with either benchmark.4
Its proposed coal phase out date is too late (2030 vs 2026) and the government plans to shift much of its coal-fired power generation to natural gas. This creates the risk of carbon-lock-in and stranded assets, and would likely prevent it from achieving a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
To get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Canada’s power sector would need to be decarbonised around 2030, with renewable energy accounting for 91-99% of Canada’s power generation by 2030. As of 2017, 67% of Canada’s electricity comes from renewable sources, mostly from hydro, and 15% from nuclear.
Key power sector benchmarks
Renewables shares and year of zero emissions power Including the use of BECCS
- 2029-2030 Zero emissions power
- 2030 Coal phase-out
- 2030 91 to 99% Renewable share
- 2033 94 to 100% Renewable share