What is United States's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
LULUCF
United States’ LULUCF sector
The land use, land change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in the United States is a significant carbon sink, absorbing more emissions than it generates. In 2022, the sector accounted for a net sink of 922 MtCO₂e, equivalent to about 15% of total national emissions in the same year.
While the LULUCF sector remains a net sink, this overall sink has been shrinking – declining by over 10% since 1990 levels – due in part to wood harvesting, natural disturbances like forest fires, and forest clearance driven by urbanisation and land conversion for agricultural use.1
Forest land converted to non-forest land – for use as cropland, settlement expansion, or wood harvesting for lumber and other products – is the largest source of CO₂ emissions in the LULUCF sector, with emissions around 145 MtCO₂ in 2022.2 While emissions from forest fires are captured within the US’ reporting of net carbon stock change in the forestry sector, fires are a significant source of yearly emissions and inter-annual variability. In 2022, CO₂ emissions from forest fires reached 129 MtCO₂, 135% above 1990 levels.
The largest source of non-CO₂ emissions are wetlands, which are responsible for around two-thirds of all non-CO₂ emissions in the sector. Forest fires are the second largest source of non-CO₂ emissions at roughly 22% of all LULUCF non-CO₂ emissions in 2022.
United States' LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂ / year
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5ºC compatible LULUCF pathways
For the United States, all analysed pathways show a relatively similar trajectory. Across all illustrative 1.5ºC compatible pathways, the LULUCF sector remains a net sink, staying roughly stable through 2030. In all these scenarios, this is driven by a sustained and large carbon sink while gross emissions stay largely the same (around 2020 levels) due to legacy emissions.
Across all analysed pathways the sink gradually declines over time, underscoring the limits of relying on carbon sinks as a permanent climate solution. This decline reflects multiple interacting factors. As planted trees mature, their sequestration potential saturates.3, 4 At the same time, climate risks such as fires, droughts, storms and pests increasingly undermine forest carbon uptake.5, 6 The effect of CO₂ fertilisation also weakens as emissions fall in 1.5°C pathways and other limiting factors, such as water stress, intensify.7
United States' LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂ / year
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
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Forestry activities
Land management practices such as afforestation and reforestation will be critical components of any strategy to maintain current carbon sink levels or indeed enhance them.8 Across all analysed pathways deforestation is halted by 2030, and net forest area change remains relatively minimal through 2070. All 1.5ºC -aligned pathways analysed here assume no further afforestation or reforestation (A/R) after 2030, which limits future sink growth driven by forest expansion. This assumption reflects concerns that in some regions, additional planting could increase warming through the albedo effect, where darker forest cover reduces reflectivity and absorbs more heat.
The United States could reforest up to 14.4 million hectares while still operating within sustainability safeguards and avoiding areas where afforestation could cause a net warming effect. This could remove an additional 70.9 MtCO₂ per year in addition to other benefits like improved soil health and job creation.9 This would require a significant policy and economic shift in the United States, from more than doubling public and private sector tree nurseries to scaling up funding for the US Forest Service.10, 11 Under the second Trump administration, action in the forestry sector is being slowed or reversed through budget and staffing cuts and significant reorganisation at the US Forest Service.12
United States' Forest area change
Million hectares / year
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Graph description
The graph presents five-year averages of changes in forest area. Negative values represent losses in forest area due to deforestation and harvesting, referred to as "forest loss". Historical forest loss data cover the period 2001-2025 and are sourced from Global Forest Watch (2025). Positive values represent forest area expansion through afforestation and/or reforestation, referred to as "forest gain". Historical forest gain data cover the period 2001-2020 and are sourced from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment (2025). Future changes in forest area, covering the period 2026-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level.
Methodology
Data References
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