What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

The road to real zero in the transport sector is via electrification. Electricity grows from meeting 2% of transport demand in 2023 to 40% by 2035 and over 90% by 2050. By 2070, the domestic transport sector is around 97% electrified, with a marginal remaining role for biomass, hydrogen and synthetic fuels (likely concentrated in domestic aviation). Oil is phased out by 2050.

Electricity is the dominant pathway to decarbonise cars, vans, buses, trucks, trains and domestic shipping, as well as potentially playing a role in short-distance aviation (e.g. which most intra-UK flights would count as). As electric vehicles are 2-4 times as efficient as internal combustion engines, the transition to an electrified transport system more than halves final energy demand by 2050.

The UK has a range of policies that are helping drive the transition towards an electric transport system. In the case of cars, this includes a ban on selling new petrol/diesel vehicles by 2030, a Zero Emission Vehicle mandate that requires a growing share of vehicles sold to be zero-emissions, and grants to incentivise uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). The result is that EVs made up 25% of all car sales in 2025, up from 1.1% in 2015.¹1

The UK is also consulting on a plan to introduce a sales ban on petrol/diesel trucks in 2035/2040,²2 has supported demonstration trials of zero-emissions Heavy Goods Vehicles through over £200m of funding,³3 and is encouraging electrification of trucks through subsidies.⁴4 The UK has taken a broadly technology-neutral stance to date on trucking decarbonisation, supporting both hydrogen and electric options. However, recent hydrogen demonstration projects were cancelled due to insufficient commercial demand.⁵5 Meanwhile, EV truck sales continue to grow strongly.⁶6 Climate Analytics’ research has demonstrated that the future of zero-carbon trucks is overwhelmingly electric, and the UK Government should potentially provide more technology clarity at this point by focusing on an all-electric future in trucking.⁷7

Maintaining and strengthening the above policy measures can help drive the UK’s electrification of transport. However, the evidence is clear that, beyond just switching to EVs, we need a shift away from private car dependence towards public transport, shared mobility, walking and cycling.⁸8