What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Future Pathway
Current trends and future pathway
The UK has legally binding carbon budgets, which limit the amount of GHG emissions allowed over a five-year period. The UK has legislated carbon budgets for the periods 2028-32, 2033-37 and 2038-2042 (the fifth, sixth and seventh carbon budgets respectively).1
The UK aims to reduce emissions to 68% below 1990 levels by 2030, and 81% by 2035 (including LULUCF).2 The UK is taking action to accelerate climate action, and credible policies now cover around 40% of the emissions reductions needed to achieve the 2030 target, with a further 20% covered by policies with minor delivery risks.3
Under current policies, emissions would reach around 60% below 1990 levels in 2030, and towards 70% by 2035.4 However, this would not be sufficient to align with the UK’s NDC, or the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario. In the HPA scenario, emissions fall 66% by 2030 and 82% by 2035, relative to 1990 levels (excluding LULUCF). These milestones are closely aligned with the UK’s current NDCs for 2030 and 2035.
United Kingdom's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr
*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.
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Graph description
The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
Methodology
Data References
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Long term pathway
Globally, warming will only stop when emissions reach net zero CO2, and will start to decline when the world reaches and sustains net-negative CO2 emissions. The HPA scenario reaches net zero CO2 around 2045, and net zero GHGs around 2060.
In the UK, CO2 emissions (excluding LULUCF) reach net zero in the early 2040s and are then sustained at around -20 MtCO2 per year from then on. This is driven by a combination of phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS).
Latest modelling from the UK’s Climate Change Committee suggests that the LULUCF sector could become a net sink of –30 MtCO2 per year by 2050, mainly driven by expanding forest cover from 13% today to 20% in 2050.5 If this is achieved, then UK CO2 emissions would reach around -50 MtCO2 per year by 2050, and total GHG emissions would reach -5 MtCO2 per years. Remaining positive emissions are largely methane and nitrous oxide coming from agriculture and waste. The UK’s current net zero by 2050 target, which covers all gases and sectors, broadly aligns with the HPA scenario.
The date by which different regions reach net zero GHGs depends on the pace and depth of the fossil phase-out, the scale of CDR rollout, and the residual non-CO2 emissions that remain.
In the HPA scenario, the UK has one of the fastest paces of fossil phase-out of all countries, achieving a fully fossil-free energy system by 2050 (see Primary Energy). This is appropriate as the UK leads the global transition aligned with highest possible ambition.
However, the UK’s total deployment of CDR is relatively low in the HPA. While we do not downscale CDR to the national level, in the HPA scenario the EU28 region provides only 5% of engineered removals in 2050. Future work will further explore the regional distribution of CDR, considering both the potential for long-term geological storage6 (where the UK’s North Sea provides significant potential), and the fiscal capacity to pay for removals (where the UK would also rank highly). Future scenarios may increase the UK’s CDR allocation, which could bring the date of net zero GHGs forwards. The current date of 2050 should therefore be seen as an ambition floor, not a ceiling.
United Kingdom's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathway. The 1.5°C compatible pathway is based on the HPA scenario and shows total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks for United Kingdom. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
1990
Reference year
|
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
802
|
385
|
271
|
147
|
50
|
25
|
26
|
14
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-66%
|
-82%
|
-94%
|
-97%
|
-97%
|
-98%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
555
|
290
|
188
|
75
|
-11
|
-22
|
-20
|
-32
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-66%
|
-86%
|
-102%
|
-104%
|
-104%
|
-106%
|
||
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
812
|
386
|
172 to
238
|
127 to
175
|
67 to
101
|
20 to
55
|
15 to
58
|
28 to
51
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-79 to
-71%
|
-84 to
-78%
|
-92 to
-88%
|
-98 to
-93%
|
-98 to
-93%
|
-97 to
-94%
|
||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
566
|
292
|
-99 to
-33
|
-19 to
28
|
17 to
51
|
-6 to
30
|
-11 to
32
|
14 to
37
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-117 to
-106%
|
-103 to
-95%
|
-97 to
-91%
|
-101 to
-95%
|
-102 to
-94%
|
-98 to
-93%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world.
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
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Methodology
Data References
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