What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the buildings sector
The buildings sector was responsible for 21% of the UK’s total emissions in 2024.1 Buildings emissions have fallen gradually over the past two decades as incremental improvements in energy efficiency reduce fossil gas demand. However, the UK building stock remains one of the leakiest in Europe and is highly dependent on gas, which provided over half of the sector’s energy demand in 2023.2
United Kingdom's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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In the HPA scenario, the buildings sector is increasingly electrified. By 2050, electricity provides almost 90% of building energy demand in 2050, up from around 30% today. There is a small but critical role for district heating demand, which triples by 2050 relative to today’s levels, and a small role for sustainable biomass-based heating, although this is phased out post-2050.
Electrification of heating and cooking drives fossil fuels out of the buildings sector. By 2040, the buildings sector is free from fossil fuels – the earliest of the three demand sectors to achieve this milestone in the UK.
Final energy demand in the buildings sector falls strongly in the HPA scenario – with total final energy demand falling 45% over 2023–2050. This is due to a combination of incremental efficiency improvements to buildings and appliances and the step-change in efficiency improvements that is possible through electrification – with heat pumps as much as 3-4 times more efficient as gas boilers.3 It is also driven by action to reduce energy service demand growth in advanced economies in the HPA scenario.4 This ensures that total demand for useful energy (i.e. heating/cooling/lighting) in the UK remains broadly flat over the period, even as population and GDP continue to grow, and makes space for more rapid demand growth in emerging and developing countries, helping to reduce the vast energy inequality that currently exists globally.
There is no role for hydrogen in the buildings sector in the HPA scenario – adding to the large body of evidence which shows that a scarce supply of green hydrogen should be prioritised for higher-use applications rather than used for heating buildings.5
United Kingdom's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from 1.5°C pathway based on the HPA scenario for United Kingdom
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
Buildings sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
71
|
41
|
15
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2038
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-42%
|
-79%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
32
|
46
|
63
|
79
|
85
|
86
|
86
|
|
Share of heat
%
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
11
|
12
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. The year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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