What is United Kingdom's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In the HPA scenario, industrial electrification reaches around 50% by 2040 and stays at this level going forwards. This is lower than in other pathways such as the CCC’s balanced pathway, in which industrial electrification reaches over 70% in 2050.¹1 This suggests that electrification could be pushed further in the HPA scenario, which would reduce reliance on energy-intensive alternatives such as hydrogen and synthetic fuels.

Hydrogen and synthetic fuels are deployed in the HPA scenario to help displace fossil fuels. By 2050 they provide around 25% of the UK’s industrial energy mix. Synthetic fuels are particularly needed as hydrocarbon feedstocks for the chemical sector, where alongside bio-based feedstocks they enable the complete elimination of oil demand as a feedstock by 2050. However, producing synthetic fuels/feedstocks is very energy intensive, which contributes to rising industrial energy demand post-2040 in the UK.

Increased electrification and a supporting role for hydrogen, biomass and synthetic fuels means that by 2040, the UK could eliminate demand for coal and fossil gas and oil demand (including for feedstock production) by 2050.

Direct emissions from industrial energy demand reach zero in 2040 in the HPA scenario, and then fall below zero, driven by deployment of bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) in industry. Meanwhile, industrial process emissions fall towards zero by 2050. This involves capturing remaining process-related CO₂ emissions (from cement and lime production), as well as minimising F-gas emissions from refrigerants and product use.