Türkiye has not committed to reducing its emissions in the medium term. Instead, the government projects steeply rising emissions until 2030, even under its planned policies scenario. This is also reflected in its NDC which includes a target of 21% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030 to a level of 999 MtCO₂e. This emissions level corresponds to an increase in emissions of 111% above 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF). Our analysis shows that Türkiye would need to reduce emissions by 41% below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF) by 2030 to be on a 1.5°C trajectory.
While 1.5°C compatible scenarios show Türkiye’s emissions peaking by 2020, there is no indication of an emissions peak under the current 2030 target or associated government emissions projections. The updated NDC announced at COP 27, but still not submitted to the UNFCCC, stipulates a 41% emissions reduction by 2030 using the same BAU scenario. Rather than reducing emissions, the announced NDC allows for their increase, albeit to lower levels, with emissions expected to peak in 2038. Even the updated NDC is therefore not 1.5°C compatible.
Long term pathway
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Türkiye’s emissions, especially in the energy sector, need to decrease steeply in the 2020s and the early 2030s. By mid-century, Türkiye’s GHG emissions should not be higher than 8–92 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF). This level corresponds to a reduction of around 80–98% below 2015 levels.
To reach net zero by 2050, the remaining emissions – mostly from the agriculture and waste sectors – would have to be fully compensated by land sinks, the capacity of which would have to remain at their current level, or the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies.,