1.5°C compatible pathways
Türkiye has not committed to reducing its emissions in the medium term. Instead, the government projects steeply rising emissions until 2030, even under its planned policies scenario.7 This is also reflected in its NDC which includes a target of 21% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030 to a level of 999 MtCO₂e. This emissions level corresponds to an increase in emissions of 111% above 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF). Our analysis shows that Türkiye would need to reduce emissions by 41% below 2015 levels (excl. LULUCF) by 2030 to be on a 1.5°C trajectory.
While 1.5°C compatible scenarios show Türkiye’s emissions peaking by 2020, there is no indication of an emissions peak under the current 2030 target or associated government emissions projections. The updated NDC announced at COP 27, but still not submitted to the UNFCCC, stipulates a 41% emissions reduction by 2030 using the same BAU scenario. Rather than reducing emissions, the announced NDC allows for their increase, albeit to lower levels, with emissions expected to peak in 2038. Even the updated NDC is therefore not 1.5°C compatible.8
Long term pathway
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Türkiye’s emissions, especially in the energy sector, need to decrease steeply in the 2020s and the early 2030s. By mid-century, Türkiye’s GHG emissions should not be higher than 8–92 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF). This level corresponds to a reduction of around 80–98% below 2015 levels.
To reach net zero by 2050, the remaining emissions – mostly from the agriculture and waste sectors – would have to be fully compensated by land sinks, the capacity of which would have to remain at their current level, or the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies.12,13
1 Government of Turkey. On bi̇ri̇nci̇ kalkinma plani (2019-2023) (11th Development Plan (2019-2023)). 2019.
2 Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkish Greenhouse gas inventory report 1990–2018. 2020.
3 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Turkey Energy Strategy 2019-2023. 2019.
4 Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker Database (July). Global Energy Monitor. 2020.
5 Climate Transparency. Turkey – Climate Transparency Report 2020. Climate Transparency Report. 2020.
6 Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Türkiye Ulusal Enerji Planı [Türkiye National Energy Plan]. 2022. Preprint at enerji.gov.tr//Media/Dizin/EIGM/tr/Raporlar/TUEP/T%C3%BCrkiye_Ulusal_Enerji_Plan%C4%B1.pdf
7 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Turkey’s Fourth Biennial Report. 2019.
8 Kurum, M. Türkiye – High-level Segment Statement COP 27. UNFCCC. 2022. Preprint at unfccc-events.azureedge.net/COP27_90500/agenda
9 Government of Turkey. National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 2017-2023. 2017.
10 Government of Turkey. Turkey. 2022 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. 2022.
11 Government of Turkey. Transport and Logistic Master Plan 2053. 2020.
12 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
13 LULUCF projections by 2030 are based on a ten-year average of the latest available historical LULUCF emissions from Türkiye assessed by the Climate Action Tracker.
Türkiyeʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Energy system transformation
Türkiye’s primary energy demand mix is characterised by a high share of fossil fuels (more than 88% in 2017). To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the share of fossil fuels would need to be roughly halved by 2030 (from around 5.4 EJ/yr to around 1.9–3.4 EJ/yr) and reduced sixfold by 2050.
The demand for oil, mainly for the transport sector would need to decline by half from its 2017 level by 2030. A shift toward zero carbon modes of transport, including through government support for electric vehicles could help to achieve the necessary emission reductions in the transport sector.
Renewable energy generation as a share of total primary energy would need to more than double by 2030 from its 2017 level of 12%. By 2050, over 90% of Türkiye’s primary energy demand would need to come from renewable energy sources.
Türkiyeʼs primary energy mix
petajoule per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Türkiyeʼs total CO₂ emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Türkiye. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
Indicator | 2015 Reference year | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year | 473 | 506 | 263 242 to 305 | 123 84 to 175 | 69 8 to 92 | 2052 |
Relative to reference year in % | −44% −49 to −36% | −74% −82 to −63% | −85% −98 to −80% | |||
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr | 378 | 396 | 231 172 to 259 | 88 25 to 136 | 5 −19 to 57 | 2055 2046 to 2068 |
Relative to reference year in % | −39% −54 to −32% | −77% −94 to −64% | −99% −105 to −85% |