What is Russia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Russia’s climate policies targeting the transport sector are badly lacking, with no plans to phase out the sale of light or heavy duty fossil fuel vehicles, while support for, and sales of electric vehicles (EVs) remain vanishingly low. Achieving even its recently set unambitious target of a 5% EV share of total car sales by 2025 appears unlikely. Moscow has targeted the installation of 200 charging stations a year, aiming to reach 600 by 2023.1 There were just 1000 charging stations across the whole of Russia in 2021. An already extensive rail network is targeted for an increase of 16,000km between 2008 and 2030, with a 33% increase in rail passengers over the same period.2 However, no sector-wide emissions or energy use targets are currently in place.
Russia's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Transport emissions in Russia increased steeply over a decade from their 1997 low. They remained relatively flat after the 2008 economic slowdown, but have been increasing again in recent years.3 This trend will need to reverse dramatically if emissions from this sector are to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways. A fall in direct CO₂ emissions by at least half below 2019 levels of 256 MtCO₂ will need to occur by 2030, led by a steep increase in electrification to between a quarter and a third of total transport final energy demand from its current level of 7%. This will not be possible under the current transport targets for EVs and rail passenger expansion. Full decarbonisation of the sector by around 2050 would be needed to align with 1.5°C pathways.
Russia's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Russia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
256
|
102 to
122
|
36 to
53
|
7 to
14
|
2049 to
2054
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-60 to
-52%
|
-86 to
-79%
|
-97 to
-95%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
7
|
24 to
34
|
37 to
66
|
53 to
77
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
3 to
15
|
10 to
13
|
10 to
26
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
4 to
6
|
5 to
49
|
19 to
67
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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