What is Russia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
The lack of prioritisation of climate change in Russian energy policies has resulted in a very slow increase in renewable energy generation, rising from 15% in 1990 to just 20% in 2020, with 98% of this coming from hydropower.1 Russia is currently not on track to its weak, short-term, non-hydro renewable generation target of 4.5% by 2024, having already missed its 2020 target of 2.5%. A massive scaling up of policies towards, and investment in, renewable energy technologies is needed to ensure Russia’s power sector is decarbonised to align to a 1.5°C compatible pathway. A 74-92% share of renewables in total generation by 2030 would place Russia on a 1.5°C aligned trajectory, which would also require that coal be phased out of the power sector by 2028.
Due to a steep decline in the emissions intensive use of oil in the power sector, and a larger share of nuclear, by 2017 Russia’s power sector emissions intensity had fallen to 37% below its 1990 level. A much steeper reduction to 2030 is required for a 1.5°C pathway, which requires a 61-96% decline below 2017 levels.
Russia's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Under Russia’s recently approved long-term climate strategy, a net zero GHG emissions target was set for 2060, with an 80% reduction below 1990 target set for 2050. Under a 1.5°C aligned pathway, however, power sector CO₂ emissions would need to reach zero by 2040, with total CO₂ emissions reaching net zero by 2050. Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035 does not set emission reduction or renewable energy generation targets for the Russian power sector.
There are currently no policies implemented or planned that would place Russia on such a trajectory, with Russia’s latest emissions projections under planned policies showing only a 37% reduction in energy-related emissions below 1990 levels by 2030.2 A sharp deviation from the current planned expansion of domestic coal and gas consumption will be required to reach net zero power sector emissions on a 1.5°C aligned timeline, with a 2028 coal phase out and a phase out of natural gas by 2039 at the latest.2
Russia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Russia to be on the order of USD 5 to 112 billion by 2030 and 4 to 96 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Russia's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Russia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
268
|
29 to
88
|
-16 to
0
|
-239 to
-1
|
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-89 to
-67%
|
-106 to
-100%
|
-189 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
17
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
46
|
6 to
18
|
0 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
2039 to
2047
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
18
|
74 to
92
|
89 to
96
|
92 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
64
|
6 to
21
|
0 to
3
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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