What is Russia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Since a dramatic 41% fall in total emissions between 1990 and 1998 (excluding LULUCF emissions) after the collapse of the Soviet Union, emissions have steadily risen to be 33% below 1990 levels in 2019.1 A steep increase in the size of the forestry sector as a sink since the early nineties has led to over half a gigatonne of removals each year since the start of the 2000’s, while all other sectors, excluding agriculture, have seen significant emission increases over this period.
Despite overall CO₂ emissions being 34% lower in 2019 than in 1990, emissions from natural gas consumption have returned to 1990 levels. Emissions from oil and petroleum products are roughly half of what they were in 1990 and emissions from coal are down 42%.2,3 The Russian power sector’s emissions were 30% below 1990 levels in 2019, despite a higher level of total electricity generation. This is primarily due to an almost doubling in generation from nuclear, and a 94% decline in generation from oil.
Russia's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy system
Russia has prioritised the expansion of domestic fossil fuel extraction and consumption over the deployment of renewable energy sources, aiming for both an enlarged share of global coal and gas exports, and higher domestic consumption. Hydropower has long been a source of renewable generation in Russia making up 15% of total generation in 1990.4 However, the overall share of renewables in the Russian power sector has barely changed since, sitting at 17% in 2019, with 97% of this coming from hydropower.5
A lack of policy intent to encourage renewable energy uptake, coupled with ongoing support for fossil fuel production and demand, leaves Russia on a trajectory far from being 1.5°C compatible. Ramping up its investment in renewables, increasing its current 2024 target of 4.5% non-hydro renewables, and setting more ambitious long-term renewable generation targets could help Russia to change course. A 2019 commitment to increase support for renewables beyond 2024 is intended to catalyse the construction of 5.3 GW capacity between 2024 and 2035, to roughly double the capacity targeted for 2024, but this still remains far from what can be considered a Paris Agreement compatible pace.6
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
Unconditional target
- 30% below 1990 levels by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
- 24% below 1990 levels (excl. LULUCF).7
Note: Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to 70% relative to the 1990 level, taking into account the maximum possible absorptive capacity of forests and other ecosystems and subject to sustainable and balanced social economic development of the Russian Federation.
Market mechanisms
- Market mechanisms are not specified.
Long-term target
- Net zero GHG emissions by 2060.
- 80% reduction below 1990 levels by 2050 (incl. LULUCF).
Sectoral targets
Power
- 2.5% of total electricity generation from non-hydro renewable energy sources by 2020.8
- 4.5% of total electricity generation from non-hydro renewable energy sources by 2024.
Transport
- 33% increase in rail passengers above 2008 levels by 2030.9
- 16,000 km of new rail routes above 2008 levels by 2030.