Ambition Gap

1.5°C compatible pathways

A 2020 update of Russia’s 2030 emissions target from a 25-30% reduction below 1990 levels to a 30% reduction below 1990 levels did not represent an actual increase in ambition, and is far from what would be needed to ensure Russia is aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement.¹ Russia’s own emissions projections show they will be below its updated 30% target in 2030, implying there is considerable scope for Russia to increase the strength of its target.² A 1.5°C compatible 2030 target for Russia would be at least a 65% reduction below 1990 levels excluding emissions from the LULUCF sector.

In 2021, the government formally approved a watered down piece of climate legislation that would have established an emissions cap-and-trade system for major emitters by 2025, required companies to report their emissions and allowed the government to introduce GHG emission targets and charge companies for excess emissions.³ Of these measures, only the requirement for companies to report their emissions was legislated. Amending this legislation to set emissions limits in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway is one way Russia could raise its 2030 ambition.

Russia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Percent
MtCO₂e/yr

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Graph description

The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.

Methodology
- Underlying global pathways
- Downscaling of global pathways
Data References

Long term pathway

Russia’s recently approved long-term climate strategy targets an 80% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels by 2050.⁴ A 2060 net zero GHG emissions target was also included in this strategy.

These targets stand in contrast with 1.5°C compatible mitigation pathways for Russia, which show a reduction in total GHG emissions of at least 90% by 2050 below 1990 levels or not higher than 321 MtCO₂e/yr, when excluding emissions from the land and forestry sector.⁵ To reach net zero GHG emissions, Russia will need to balance its remaining emissions with a sink of at least 321 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.⁶ With its current land sink (around 535 MtCO₂e/yr) Russia is well positioned to be able to balance these emissions without relying on the development of carbon dioxide removal technologies.

The size of Russia’s LULUCF sink is projected to more than double between 2030 and 2050, reaching 1200 MtCO₂e.⁷ This figure, however, was produced after an announcement by the Russian government that it would fundamentally change the way forestry emissions are accounted for, by designating forests previously categorised as unmanaged, as managed. Such accounting method would practically violate IPCC reporting guidelines.⁸ This will greatly increase levels of negative emissions included in Russia’s GHG inventory, through nothing more than an accounting change. Such an action calls into question the viability of achieving the steep projected increase in negative emissions to 2050.

Graph description

Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.

Methodology
- Downscaling primary energy mix
Data References
- Historical energy consumption : IEA WEB 2021

Energy system transformation

Russia’s energy system is heavily skewed towards fossil fuel sources, which made up 89% of primary energy demand in 2020.⁹ Coal and oil as a proportion of primary energy demand in 2020 is roughly equal to 2010 levels. Total natural gas demand has also increased over this time. Renewables as a share of primary energy meanwhile, has remained constant over this same period.

In 1.5°C compatible pathways, Russia’s share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand is between 66-77% by 2030. Unabated fossil fuels in the power sector would need to fall from its 2020 level of 60% to reach between 6-21% by 2030. Recent rises in demand for all fossil fuels, especially coal, must begin to decline as soon as possible if Russia is to have any chance of forging a 1.5°C aligned energy system transformation.

Graph description

1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.

Methodology
- Downscaling CO2 Emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions: PRIMAP-Hist 2021. Last inventory year: 2019.

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Russia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

1990
2010
2015

Indicator	1990 Reference year	2019	2030	2040	2050	Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year	3159	2119	767 667 to 1081	363 264 to 438	188 99 to 284	2062
Relative to reference year in %			-76% -79 to -66%	-89% -92 to -86%	-94% -97 to -91%
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr	2523	1683	702 481 to 905	246 22 to 345	34 10 to 170	2057
Relative to reference year in %			-72% -81 to -64%	-90% -99 to -86%	-99% -100 to -93%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

Methodology
- How are emissions bencharmks defined?
Data References
- Historical emissions: Climate Action Tracker 2021 update
- Download data as CSV

Russian Federation. NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION OF the RUSSIAN FEDERATION. (2020). ↩
Russian Federation. Russian Federation Fourth Biennial Report. (2019). ↩
The Moscow Times. Russia Rejects Climate Change Plan After Business Uproar. The Moscow Times. (2019). ↩
Russian Federation. Strategy for the Socio - Economic Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. (2021). ↩
While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models - and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability. ↩
Some pathways include sinks based on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), thus this is a conservative estimate. ↩
Russian Federation. Strategy for the Socio - Economic Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. (2021). ↩
Davydova, A. Business is decarbonizing on paper and in corporate reports. Kommersant (2021).. ↩
IEA. World Energy Balances 2021. (International Energy Agency, 2021). ↩

What is Russia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Russia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Long term pathway

Russia's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Energy system transformation

Russia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

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