What is Russia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Direct emissions from Russia’s building sector, after seeing a slight downward trend since their collapse in the early 1990’s, have skyrocketed in recent years, reaching their highest level since 1993.1 Direct emissions from residential buildings in particular increased 78% between 2012 and 2019, reaching a 28-year high largely due to enormous increases in both gas and oil consumption, and despite a 30% reduction in coal demand.
Russia's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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A 1.5°C pathway for Russia’s building sector would see direct CO₂ emissions fall by just over three quarters below 2019 levels of 220 MtCO₂ by 2030, reaching zero around 2050. Previously set buildings energy efficiency targets were scrapped in 2020 and replaced by more ambiguous ones in a draft Energy Efficiency Action Plan that remains unapproved as of March 2022.2 The plan contains no specific emissions or energy efficiency targets for the building sector. The previous regulations mandated a 50% reduction below baseline by 2028.
Given the plan’s current draft status, Russia could use this opportunity to include concrete and stringent building sector targets to reduce fossil fuel use and overall energy consumption, and increase electrification. 1.5°C pathways show the electrification rate could reach 40-50% by 2030, and two thirds by 2040, from its current 15%. Rapidly decarbonising the power sector is critical to ensure electrification of buildings energy demand results in the necessary steep emissions reductions.
Russia's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Russia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
220
|
49 to
50
|
17 to
20
|
4 to
7
|
2032 to
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-78 to
-77%
|
-92 to
-91%
|
-98 to
-97%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
15
|
40 to
50
|
66 to
67
|
68 to
84
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
36
|
36 to
74
|
24 to
79
|
21 to
81
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
2
|
1 to
8
|
2 to
13
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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