What is Russia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Russia’s industry sector remains one of the most carbon intensive of the G20 group of countries, with carbon intensity almost double the G20 average in 2017 (of 0.7 tCO₂e/USD2015 GVA) and rising.1 The Russian steel industry is also more carbon intensive than the world average. The draft Energy Action Plan released in 2020 contained timelines to develop national energy efficiency standards, but these are already behind schedule, with the first having been scheduled to be released in the second half of 2021.2 The plan targets a very minor reduction (0.3%) in the energy intensity of cast iron production and a moderate reduction (17%) in cement and clinker production by 2030.
Russia's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Total industry GHG emissions have been increasing in Russia since their nadir in 1998 that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union and the economic collapse this induced.3 In 2018 they reached their highest point since 1991, and over 60% above the 1998 low. Pathways aligned with 1.5°C show Russian energy-related CO₂ emissions falling by roughly half below 2019 levels by 2030, and hitting zero by 2050. Process emissions, generally a harder emissions type to mitigate, would need to fall by a third by 2030 and at least 70% by 2050.
These figures demonstrate that Russia would need to drastically ratchet up the ambition of its industry energy efficiency targets, and set clear emissions reduction targets to spur the level of action required to align its industry sector with the Paris Agreement.
Russia's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Russia's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Russia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
334
|
142 to
146
|
46 to
56
|
-2 to
16
|
2045 to
2050
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-58 to
-56%
|
-86 to
-83%
|
-100 to
-95%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
20
|
27 to
27
|
37 to
45
|
47 to
56
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
20
|
31 to
32
|
42 to
56
|
53 to
73
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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