What is Nigeria's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the buildings sector
Nigeria’s buildings sector emitted about 10% of the country’s total emissions in 2019 (excluding LULUCF).1,2 However, this does not include CO2 emissions from biomass burning, which are accounted for in land use emissions to avoid double counting. As biomass accounted for 97% of the buildings sector’s energy consumption in 2019 (largely in households) the actual impact of the buildings sector on national emissions is much higher.3
Nigeria's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Across all pathways, Nigeria’s buildings sector transitions away from biomass as the sector electrifies. In the Net-Zero commitments pathway, biomass is nearly phased out of the buildings sector by 2050 as the sector reaches over 90% electricity in the energy mix. The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway shows the lowest level of electricity in the mix in 2050 at 79%; however, it minimises earlier expansion of fossil fuels in the system that would need to be phased out compared to other pathways.
The Deep Electrification pathway shows an introduction of coal to the buildings sector energy mix which peaks in 2030 and is phased out shortly after, by 2040. The other 1.5°C pathways analysed here show this rapid phase in and phase out of coal is not necessary and the negative health impacts and emissions from its use can be avoided.
To decarbonise cooking and expand access to clean cooking solutions, Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan prioritises liquified petroleum gas until 2030.4 Post-2030, the plan aims to deploy electric cookstoves to grid-connected, mostly urban households and commercial buildings and prioritises biogas for off-grid households.
Nigeria's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Nigeria
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
3
|
14 to
62
|
18 to
38
|
14 to
24
|
3 to
11
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
367 to
1967%
|
500 to
1167%
|
367 to
700%
|
0 to
267%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
2
|
5 to
7
|
11 to
16
|
32 to
42
|
78 to
92
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
1
|
0 to
2
|
1 to
5
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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