What is Kenya's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Decarbonising the industry sector
Kenya’s industry sector accounted for 11% of national emissions (excluding LULUCF) in 2022, including emissions from energy use and industrial processes.1 The share of coal in industrial energy use almost tripled between 2010-2020, primarily due to demand in the cement sector.2, 3 Coal met 43% of industrial energy demand in 2022.4 The substitution of clinker in cement production, which is part of Kenya’s emission reduction strategy in its 2020 NDC, could result in reduced reliance on coal for cement production.5
Kenya's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector. Deployment of synthetic fuels is not represented in these pathways.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC AR6 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The Minimal CDR Reliance pathway sees the most rapid electrification of Kenya’s industrial sector – it limits warming to 1.5ºC with only minimal amounts of carbon dioxide removal and requires faster and deeper reductions in fossil fuel usage. In this pathway, the share of fossil fuels are almost halved by 2030, falling from 66% in 2020, to 37%, dropping to just 5% of the mix by 2050. Increased electrification is critical for this pathway to meet the high energy demand from Kenyan industry.
In the Net Zero Commitments and Deep Electrification pathways, the share of electricity stays relatively stable through 2030 and increases to 36-58% by 2050. However, in absolute terms, some of the increase in energy demand is met by increased fossil fuels in the energy mix.
Energy regulations stipulate that industries consuming 180 MWh per year establish energy management plans and conduct an energy audit every three years.6 The government has set a target for full compliance by 2025 against the current 45%.7, 8 It is also mandatory for some electrical machinery to achieve minimum energy performance standards ensuring that energy efficiency is enhanced.
Kenya's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (from energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Kenya's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC AR6, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kenya
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
Industry sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
4
|
3 to
5
|
3 to
5
|
3 to
6
|
1 to
6
|
2049
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-25 to
25%
|
-25 to
25%
|
-25 to
50%
|
-75 to
50%
|
| Indicator |
2022
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
27
|
28 to
54
|
35 to
60
|
37 to
69
|
36 to
90
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass
%
|
42
|
30 to
63
|
38 to
68
|
45 to
79
|
60 to
95
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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