What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Transport

Decarbonising the transport sector

The transport sector contributed 17% of Japan’s total GHG emissions in 2023. Road transport dominates Japan’s transport emissions, accounting for about 86% of transport’s total emissions (47% from passenger cars and 38% trucks).1 Direct CO₂ emissions have trended downward since peaking in 2001, declining by nearly 30% by 2023 primarily due to improved vehicle efficiency and stricter emissions standards. Nevertheless, Japan’s domestic transport fuel mix has changed little over the past three decades, with oil still supplying 97% of transport energy demand in 2023 and electricity accounted for just 2%.

In 2023, the total passenger travel increased by 18% compared to 2020 levels.2 Passenger cars accounted for over two-thirds of the total distance travelled, while rail contributed 29% and buses 3%.3. There are positive signs of a modal shift towards shared public transport. The share of passenger travel using private vehicles decreased from 72% in 2020 to 67% in 2023, while rail’s share rose from 25% to 29% and buses from 2% to 3%.4 Measures to promote cycling and recent initiatives addressing regional gaps in public transport services through buses and taxis may further accelerate this shift towards shared transport modes.5,6

Japan's energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Scaling

Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector.

Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, transport emissions fall by over 70% below 2023 levels by 2040 and approach full decarbonisation by 2050. Under the HPA scenario, electricity use would increase to 32% by 2040, equivalent to 426 PJ/yr (or 10 Mtoe/yr), excluding international bunker fuels. By 2060, conventional oil is completely phased out and 74% of the transport sector’s fuel mix will come from electricity.

Biofuels remain relatively low in the fuel mix throughout Japan’s transition, peaking in 2040, at around 5 Mtoe/yr or around 15% of the mix. Biofuel use would need to be limited to the so-called hard-to-abate domestic aviation and maritime sectors. Synthetic fuels appear in the mix from 2040 onwards. Hydrogen plays only a marginal role throughout, contributing around 1% from 2035 onwards.

While biofuels can support the oil phase-out by lowering the carbon intensity of the remaining internal combustion engine (ICE) fleet before widespread EV adoption, their sustainability is constrained. Without stringent safeguards on land and water use, as well as land rights and feedstock production (e.g. soy, corn, sugarcane), high shares of biofuels risk driving deforestation, water stress, and displacement of traditional land users. Their use should therefore remain limited, with strict eligibility criteria to avoid competition for land and food systems.

Japan's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions

MtCO₂/yr

Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).

Despite positive signs of modal shifts, improvements in fuel efficiency under the Top Runner Program, and stricter exhaust emission standards, Japan’s progress in electrifying passenger vehicles remains slow, posing a major challenge to decarbonising the transport sector.7,8

In 2024, Japan’s electric vehicle (EV) sales fell by 33% year-on-year, accounting for only 3% of the total domestic market sales – the lowest among major developed economies.9,10 The slow uptake of EVs reflects the domestic industry’s continued focus on hybrids, consumer preference for internal combustion engine (ICE and hybrid vehicles, slow charging infrastructure development, the higher cost of EVs compared to ICE cars, and continued petrol subsidies for petrol vehicles during the same time.11,12

The industry’s lukewarm stance on EV production and sluggish consumer demand underscore Japan’s unambitious EV targets, which are insufficient to break its oil reliance status quo. Japan aims for 100% of new passenger vehicle sales to be electric, fuel cell, or hybrid electric vehicles by 2035.13 For commercial vehicles, electrified vehicles are targeted to reach 20–30% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030, and 100% for electrified and low-emissions fuel vehicles by 2040.14 However, these targets, which still allow hybrids to be sold until 2040, are inadequate to rapidly shift Japan away from fossil fuels. Japan could adopt more ambitious EV targets to accelerate sectoral electrification.

Despite policy support and financial incentives for EV sales, EVs struggle with price competitiveness due to the limited range of available models, petrol subsidies, and tax incentives available for hybrids.15,16 Another significant barrier to EV uptake is the slow expansion of public charging infrastructure. In 2024, Japan lags behind many Asian countries in EVs per public charger, kilowatts per EV, and the overall driver charging experience.17,18 To align with the HPA scenario, Japan would need to accelerate electrification by incentivising EV adoption, phase out competing petrol subsidies, and rapidly scale up public charging infrastructure.

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from the HPA scenario for Japan

Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Transport sector decarbonised by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
186
128
93
53
7
0
0
2052
Relative to reference year in %
-31%
-50%
-72%
-96%
-100%
-100%
Indicator
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Share of electricity
%
2
10
20
32
58
73
77
Share of hydrogen
%
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
Share of biofuels
%
1
1
4
16
21
13
12

All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). Year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

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