What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Primary Energy
Primary energy
Under the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, Japan’s total primary energy supply would decline by 41% in 2035, and by 46% by 2050, compared to 2023, due to scaling up of more efficient electrification technologies. Renewable electrification plays a critical role in the transformation of Japan’s primary energy mix, pushing fossil fuels out of the energy system, by nearly 70% in 2035, 90% in 2040, and 98% by 2050, compared to 2023. This is due to the inherently inefficient nature of fossil fuels – when coal, oil and gas are burned to create electricity or motion, a large amount of their energy is wasted as heat. Electrification, on the other hand, provides energy services with near 100% efficiency (and in the case of heat pumps, above 100% efficiency). Electrification technologies are around 2-4 times more efficient than their fossil counterparts. Electrifying the energy system can reduce the scale of energy supply.
Japan's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Renewables (including biomass) would sustain their growth, achieving a nearly fourfold increase by 2035, fivefold by 2040, and sevenfold by 2050. A scale up of renewables can accelerate the fossil fuel phase-out, with coal approaching near complete phase-out by 2035, gas by 2040 and oil by 2050. Nuclear energy, after a slight increase in 2030 from 2023 levels, begins to decline in absolute values during the 2030s, with its supply halving by 2050 compared to 2023 levels.
As a strategy to ensure energy security, the current government has prioritised increasing fossil fuels in the energy mix, particularly through greater LNG imports, as well as nuclear energy. Meanwhile, development plans for solar and wind energy remain unclear.1 The 2026 war in Iran has exposed Japan’s vulnerability to such a fossil fuel reliant strategy as the Japanese households are experiencing rising cost of living.2