What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Future Pathway

Current trends and future pathways

Japan’s current policies are projected to reduce emissions to 852-903 MtCO2e in 2030 and 688-779 MtCO2e in 2035, excluding LULUCF.1

Japan’s policy trajectory is not aligned with 1.5°C. Under the Highest Possible Ambition scenario, which aligns with 1.5°C with limited overshoot, Japan would need to achieve deep emissions reductions over the next decade, reaching 302 MtCO2e/yr in 2035 excluding LULUCF. This equates to a 78% reduction below 2013 levels, or 72% below 2023. An accelerated transformation of Japan’s primary energy supply will be central to achieving these reductions.

Fully decarbonising the economy would see Japan’s emissions continuously decline to 18 MtCO2e/yr by 2040 (nearly 100% below 2013 levels), with net zero emissions achieved by the mid-2040s.

Japan plans to count approximately 100 MtCO2e of carbon credits towards its 2030 NDC goal and 200 MtCO2e towards the 2040 NDC target.2 However, to be compatible with 1.5°C, international support provided by Japan should be additional to Japan’s domestic emissions reductions, not counted towards it.

Japan's total GHG emissions MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

Target Year

*This pathway reflects the level of mitigation ambition needed domestically to align the country with a cost-effective breakdown of the global emissions reductions in the HPA scenario. For developing countries, achieving these reductions will require international support.  

  • Graph description

    The figure shows a national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathway for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF in the Highest Possible Ambition scenario. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world. 

    Methodology

    Data References

Long term pathway

In October 2020, Japan’s Prime Minister announced the country’s commitment to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050, which was reaffirmed in its long-term strategy under the Paris Agreement, released in October 2021, and in its 2035-2040 Nationally Determined Contribution.3, 4, 5 The Green Growth Strategy, released in June 2021, provides sector-level roadmaps towards net zero which will be facilitated by the YEN 2 trillion Green Innovation Fund.6

The government estimates that it would need to offset about 50-240 Mt/yr of residual emissions to achieve net zero by 2050, considering direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and forest sink measures as crucial strategies to balance residual GHG emissions.7

The HPA scenario requires significant emissions cuts globally between now and 2040 to achieve net zero CO₂ before 2040 and reach net zero GHG emissions by mid-2040s, minimizing overshoot of the 1.5ºC limit. While we currently do not specify country-level CDR results, we find that it is a key lever at the global scale. The HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR deployment from the 2030s onwards, which is critical to achieving net-negative CO₂ emissions and compensating for remaining residual emissions (typically from agriculture, waste, and industrial processes). Further details on our global approach to CDR, including sustainability and feasibility bounds and the role of the land sector can be found in the methodology and our report Rescuing 1.5ºC: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement.8

The HPA scenario also shows the need to reach net-negative GHG emissions to bring temperatures back down well below 1.5ºC as fast as possible. In the HPA, global net-negative emissions are sustained over 2060–2100, but in some countries this regime of net-negative emissions appears earlier. In the case of Japan, total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF reach net zero shortly after 2040 and then become net-negative.

The exact distribution of a future net-negative emissions regime, both in terms of where CDR is deployed to achieve net-negative emissions, and how this CDR is financed, is an active area of research. We are conducting further research on this presently. Our current results for this net-negative regime should be seen as preliminary and subject to further revision.

The Highest Possible Ambition scenario would see emissions reach at least -92 MtCO2e/yr in 2050 – a near 110% reduction from 2013. This would include Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS), and land sector sinks, but exclude LULUCF. Although CDR technology is essential in the long term, our analysis does not report country-level CDR results. Instead of heavily relying on costly CDR technologies, Japan should prioritise reducing its dependence on fossil fuels and scale up already cost-effective renewables in the short term.

Japan's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks for Japan. Benchmarks are based on the HPA scenario. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

LULUCF

Indicator
2013
Reference year
2023
2030
2035
2040
2050
2060
2070
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
1391
1065
636
302
18
-92
-115
-129
Relative to reference year in %
-54%
-78%
-99%
-107%
-108%
-109%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
1260
947
531
221
-45
-129
-146
-157
Relative to reference year in %
-58%
-82%
-104%
-110%
-112%
-112%
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
1316
1014
298 to 437
130 to 255
2 to 130
-114 to 31
-82 to 14
-92 to 16
Relative to reference year in %
-77 to -67%
-90 to -81%
-100 to -90%
-109 to -98%
-106 to -99%
-107 to -99%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
1184
896
-338 to -199
-172 to -47
-17 to 112
-23 to 122
33 to 129
38 to 146
Relative to reference year in %
-129 to -117%
-115 to -104%
-101 to -91%
-102 to -90%
-97 to -89%
-97 to -88%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. While we don’t present country-level estimates, the HPA scenario rapidly scales CDR from the 2030s onwards, with engineered removals reaching around 5 GtCO2/yr by 2050, supported by limited removals of around 2 GtCO2/yr from the land-use system. The HPA scenario avoids large-scale nature-based CDR, given the risks of overreliance on natural sinks in a warming world. 
All values are rounded. Emissions data is presented in global warming potential (GWP) values from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). 

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