What is Japan's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Decarbonising the buildings sector
Accounting for 10% of total emissions excluding LULUCF, Japan’s buildings sector saw a 7% decline in CO₂ emissions (primarily from electricity use and energy use for cooling and heating) in 2023 from 2022. This fall is due to reduced heating demand during a warmer winter and continued improvements in energy efficiency across residential and commercial buildings.1
Japan's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
Fuel shares refer only to energy demand of the sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2035, 2040 through 2070 based on the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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Direct CO2 emissions from the sector have been declining since 2002 (when oil consumption peaked), with the share of electricity steadily increasing to 58% in 2023. This trend reflects the relatively high energy efficiency of Japan’s residential and commercial sectors within the Asia-Pacific region.2 Under the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario, electrification would exceed 90% by 2040, driving a nearly 100% reduction in direct CO₂ emissions relative to 2013 levels. By 2050, the sector would approach full electrification.
Final energy demand in buildings would decline and stabilise after 2040 under the HPA scenario, consistent with government policies promoting energy conservation and efficiency. These include mandatory energy efficiency standards, performance labelling, targeted subsidies and tax incentives. The revised Building Energy Conservation Act requires standardised energy performance labelling for sellers and lessors from April 2024 and mandates compliance with upgraded energy-efficiency standards for all new buildings from 2025, alongside reporting obligations on energy consumption for large buildings.3, 4, 5 In addition, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry provides targeted subsidies to promote energy efficiency technologies in buildings, such as energy efficient water-heating systems.6, 7
Japan's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in the HPA scenario.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from 1.5°C pathway based on the HPA scenario for Japan
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
Buildings sector decarbonised by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
90
|
66
|
29
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2039
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-27%
|
-68%
|
-96%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2023
|
2030
|
2035
|
2040
|
2050
|
2060
|
2070
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
%
|
58
|
59
|
76
|
91
|
99
|
97
|
95
|
|
Share of heat
%
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
|
Share of hydrogen
%
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
All values are rounded. Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector analysis, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here). All values are rounded. The year of full decarbonisation is based on a carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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