What is Indonesia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
LULUCF
Indonesia's LULUCF sector
Historically, Indonesia’s LULUCF sector has been a net carbon source, and while net emissions have risen from 332 MtCO₂ in 2000, year on year growth is highly irregular. Between 2013-2015 net emissions rose significantly, peaking in 2015 at 1655 MtCO₂. Emissions have dropped since then and were 298 MtCO₂ according to Indonesia’s national inventory.
Croplands are the key source of CO₂ emissions, nearly doubling the amount of CO₂ absorbed by Indonesia’s forests.1 Although the LULUCF sector as a whole is a net carbon source, Indonesia’s forests are still a net sink despite high deforestation rates. In recent years, deforestation was largely driven by clearance for palm-oil plantations and development of the new capital city. 2
Indonesia has set a 2030 target of a carbon sink of –140 MtCO₂, to be achieved through reduced deforestation and degradation, enhanced forest and land sequestration, reduced emissions from fires and peat decomposition, and stronger law enforcement. 3
Indonesia's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂ / year
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.
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1.5ºC compatible LULUCF pathways
For Indonesia, we focus on the Deep electrification pathway, as it relies less heavily on carbon sink than the other two. In this scenario, net zero LULUCF emissions by 2040 is mainly achieved through a deep reduction of gross emissions below 2020 levels, with minimal expansion of the sink. Other scenarios have much greater reliance on an expanded sink, which could lead to negative impacts on biodiversity and traditional land-users.
At the same time, across all pathways, the sink declines towards the end of the century. This decline reflects multiple interacting factors. As planted trees mature, their sequestration potential saturates.4,5 Concurrently, climate risks such as fires, droughts, storms and pests increasingly undermine forest carbon uptake.6,7 The effect of CO₂ fertilisation also weakens as emissions fall in 1.5°C pathways and other limiting factors, such as water stress, intensify.8 Declining ecosystem productivity and carbon stock resilience further raise concerns about the long-term sustainability of forest-based removals under climate stress. 9,10
Indonesia's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂ / year
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
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Forestry activities
Under the 1.5ºC compatible Deep Electrification Pathway, which explores how the rapidly declining cost of renewables can revolutionise the energy transition, Indonesia’s LULUCF sector gross emissions decline rapidly until 2040 as the sector turns from a carbon source to carbon sink. This is mainly driven by a deep reduction of gross emissions below 2020 levels, with minimal expansion of the sink. Sequestration expands only slightly and plateaus around 2050, driven mainly by a rapid decline in deforestation which ends entirely after 2030. While playing a smaller role, afforestation and reforestation more than doubles the forest area between 2021 and 2030 relative to the 2020 levels. Indonesia could reforest up to 7.5 million hectares while still operating within sustainability safeguards and avoiding areas where afforestation could cause a net warming effect, potentially removing an additional 149 MtCO₂ per year.
However, the sink declines in the latter half of the century, with the sector reverting to a net source around 2065 due to legacy emissions, underscoring the limits of relying on carbon sinks as a permanent climate solution.
Under the Net-Zero Commitments Pathway, which limits global warming to 1.5°C through stringent climate policies and innovation, reaching global net zero CO₂ emissions around 2050, the LULUCF sector will turn from a net carbon source to a net carbon sink around mid-2020s. The sink peaks around 2040, fuelled by a surge of afforestation in this decade, though forest area expansion slows sharply thereafter and the sink decreases afterwards. In contrast, under the Net-Zero Commitments Pathway.
The ambition of Indonesia’s 2030 LULUCF sink target aligns with the Net-Zero Commitments pathway, however ongoing deforestation linked to the construction of the new capital city casts doubt on the country’s ability to stay on track.11
Indonesia's Forest area change
Million hectares / year
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Graph description
The graph presents five-year averages of changes in forest area. Negative values represent losses in forest area due to deforestation and harvesting, referred to as "forest loss". Historical forest loss data cover the period 2001-2025 and are sourced from Global Forest Watch (2025). Positive values represent forest area expansion through afforestation and/or reforestation, referred to as "forest gain". Historical forest gain data cover the period 2001-2020 and are sourced from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment (2025). Future changes in forest area, covering the period 2026-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level.
Methodology
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