What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
The transport sector in Brazil is the largest source of energy demand, and emissions have continued to increase in recent years, mainly from freight and private vehicles.1 Emissions from road transport constitute a majority of sectoral emissions, despite the fact that Brazil is one of the countries with the highest use of biofuels, with a 25% share in 2019.2
Brazil's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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The main policy in the sector, called RenovaBio, aims to increase the use of biofuels, however, these fuels require land to grow their crop feedstocks, leading to increased deforestation, and are resource intensive.3,4
The electric vehicle (EV) market in Brazil is still nascent, but has shown positive growth and is expected to increase to almost a 20% share of car sales by 2030.5 Brazil could increase investment in EV infrastructure and provide incentives for users, to stimulate demand and go beyond this projection.
The 1.5°C scenarios analysed show rapid emissions reduction and reach zero emissions sometime in the 2040s, with electricity’s share of transport final energy demand reaching one to two thirds by 2050. One scenario assumes a low dependence on biofuels but higher use of hydrogen in the sector.
In addition to promoting zero emission vehicles, Brazil could also look into opportunities to reduce the need for car ownership by developing alternatives, such as the improvement of public transport, promoting bike paths and improving mobility in cities.
Brazil's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Brazil
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
194
|
84 to
94
|
4 to
28
|
0 to
1
|
2037 to
2048
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-57 to
-52%
|
-98 to
-85%
|
-100 to
-99%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
0
|
8 to
19
|
22 to
50
|
36 to
71
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
25
|
26 to
59
|
29 to
76
|
31 to
66
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
1 to
16
|
4 to
51
|
14 to
53
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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