What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Ambition Gap
1.5°C compatible pathways
To be on a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal, Brazil’s emissions in 2030 would need to be 594-814 MtCO₂e/yr, or 11-35% below 2005 levels, excluding land-use emissions. Brazil’s current NDC targets emissions of 5% above 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF (a 50% reduction including LULUCF), or 962 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. This is not at all in line with the emissions reductions needed to be on a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Brazil's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways
-
Graph description
The figure shows national 1.5°C compatible emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th-50th percentiles of the distributions of such pathways which achieve the LTTG of the Paris Agreement. We consider one primary net-negative emission technology in our analysis (BECCS) due to data availability. Net negative emissions from the land-sector (LULUCF) and novel CDR technologies are not included in this analysis due to data limitations from the assessed models. Furthermore, in the global cost-effective model pathways we analyse, such negative emissions sources are usually underestimated in developed country regions, with current-generation models relying on land sinks in developing countries.
Methodology
Data References
-
Long term pathway
Brazil’s latest NDC also includes a long-term objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Brazil’s CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) fall to zero by 2050. This would require rapid and extensive decarbonisation of the energy system and potentially the roll-out of carbon dioxide removal measures such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
To be 1.5°C compatible, Brazil should target a GHG emissions levels of 215-331 MtCO₂e/yr (excluding LULUCF), or a reduction of 64-77% below 2005 levels by 2050.
To balance these remaining emissions, Brazil will need carbon sinks. Sinks could either be land-based carbon removal (e.g. reforestation, forest restoration) or through novel carbon removal technologies. If Brazil were to have net removals from LULUCF of about –400 MtCO₂e/yr by 2040 and –700 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, as projected in a report by CDP Latin America with the assumption of reaching zero deforestation by 2030, net zero GHG emissions could be achieved around 2040.1
Brazil's primary energy mix
petajoule per year
-
Graph description
Primary energy mix composition in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based selected global least cost pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Energy system transformation
In a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the share of renewables in Brazil’s energy sector would need to reach above 60% by 2030. In two of the scenarios analysed, renewables reach close to 100% by mid-century, while fossil fuels are almost entirely phased out by this time.
The Brazilian government expects renewables to make up a 48% share of the primary energy mix by 2030, falling more than 10 percentage points short of what is needed to be 1.5°C aligned.2 A much faster renewables scale-up will be required, especially if energy demand is to grow as planned. While the government foresees a large role for biofuels like ethanol for transport, these fuels require land to grow their crop feedstocks, leading to increased deforestation, and are resource intensive.3 More emphasis will be needed on renewable powered electrification and energy efficiency.
The government’s planned growth in fossil fuel use is not consistent with any 1.5°C compatible pathway. While 1.5°C pathways show a maximum of 4 EJ from non-renewables in 2030, the government’s energy infrastructure plans include 8 EJ by this time, most of which is from oil and gas.4 By 2050, 1.5°C pathways show a very low or negligible level of remaining unabated fossil fuels.
Scenarios that keep fossil fuels in the energy system for longer or have very high energy demand deploy negative CO₂ emissions technologies as early as 2030.
Brazil's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
-
Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Brazil. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
| Indicator |
2005
Reference year
|
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
|
917
|
1109
|
668
594 to
814
|
413
345 to
562
|
266
215 to
331
|
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-27%
-35 to
-11%
|
-55%
-62 to
-39%
|
-71%
-77 to
-64%
|
|||
|
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
|
383
|
495
|
299
209 to
333
|
90
1 to
148
|
-34
-101 to
17
|
2047
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-22%
-46 to
-13%
|
-77%
-100 to
-61%
|
-109%
-126 to
-96%
|
All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
-
Methodology
Data References
-