What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Current Situation
Emissions profile
Brazil’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were 1109 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) and are projected to grow without enhanced decarbonisation policies.1 Agriculture is the largest emitting sector in Brazil, accounting for 45% of total GHGs emission in 2019, followed by the energy sector at 38%.
Agriculture and deforestation are key drivers of emissions in Brazil, as well as the energy sector. Agriculture emissions have been rising over the last couple of decades, with livestock (enteric fermentation and manure) the largest source. Emissions from the land sector, which had been declining from 2003-2010, have risen dramatically over the last decade, driven by an acceleration in deforestation rates.2-3
Emissions in the energy sector peaked in 2014 and have been relatively constant over recent years, but under existing policies are projected to rise over the next decade.4 This is in part due to the planned expansion of gas-powered electricity generation. Emissions from transport, buildings, and industry are also all projected to increase over the next five to ten years.
Brazil's current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
Historical emissions per gas and per sector.
Data References
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Energy system
Emissions from the energy sector come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels in transport and industry.
Brazil already has a relatively large share of renewables in its primary energy mix (47% in 2020), mostly biomass, hydro and wind, with a small amount of solar.5 In the power sector, renewables made up 84% of generation in 2020, with gas, coal, nuclear, and oil making up the rest. According to Brazil’s ten-year energy plan, renewables are expected to make up 48% of primary energy and 83% of electricity generation by 2030, with a large growth in distributed solar and biomass power generation and approximately a doubling of centralised wind and solar generation.6
However, the plan also includes a doubling of oil production and an increase in natural gas production. The government’s New Gas Market programme aims to lower gas prices and expand the Brazilian natural gas market, and the government expects gas power generation to double by 2030, to make up 14% of primary energy.7 Such an expansion would slow down Brazil’s power sector decarbonisation.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
Unconditional NDC Target:
- 37% reduction by 2025 and 50% reduction by 2030 compared with 2005 levels (incl. LULUCF).8
- 4% increase by 2025 and 5% increase by 2030 compared with 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF).
Market mechanisms
- The NDC mentions that the Brazilian government does not rule out the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs).
Long-term target
Net zero targets:
- In its last NDC update submitted in April 2022, Brazil’s commitments also include a long-term objective to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.9 No further information is provided on how this will be achieved or specific plans.
- Brazil has not submitted an official Long-term Development Strategy to the UNFCCC.
Sectoral targets
Energy
- Increase the share of sustainable biofuels in the energy mix to approximately 18% by 2030.10
- Achieve 45-50% share of renewables in the energy mix by 2030, including expansion of non-hydro renewables to 28-33% by 2030.11
Power
- Increasing the share of non-hydro renewables in power supply to at least 23% by 2030.12
- Achieving 10% efficiency gains in the electricity sector by 2030.
Waste
- National zero methane programme.
- Waste recovery rate of 27% in 2031.
- Growth of the biogas production potential in the sanitation sector of 85% by 2033.
Agriculture
- Strengthen the Low Carbon Emissions Agriculture Program (ABC), including by restoring an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhancing 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030.13
LULUCF
- Reduce illegal deforestation, starting in 2022, by 15% per year until 2024, 40% in 2025 and 2026, and 50% in 2027, reaching the goal of zero illegal deforestation in 2028.
- Restore and reforest 18 million hectares of forests, for multiple uses, by 2030.