What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
LULUCF
LULUCF emissions profile trajectories
Brazil’s total emissions for 2020 were 1.5 GtCO₂e, of which land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounted for 22%.1 Most of these emissions are from deforestation and forest degradation, the main drivers of which are cattle ranching, large-scale agriculture, and transport infrastructure. Secondary causes include mining, large-scale illegal logging, small-scale agriculture, and forest fires.2
For the LULUCF sector, Brazil’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) proposes measures to reduce illegal deforestation from 2022, by 15% per year until 2024, 40% in 2025 and 2026, and 50% in 2027, reaching the goal of zero illegal deforestation in 2028. In addition, it includes a target to restore and reforest 18 Mha of forests, for multiple uses, by 2030.3
The 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here indicates that Brazil would need to reverse its emissions to achieve net carbon sequestration by natural sinks by 2030, with more than a 75% reduction in gross emissions compared to 2020 values by this date. The net land use sink in this pathway stabilises by 2050, with almost –2 GtCO₂e sequestered per year, before gradually decreasing as the sink saturates over time. This level is slightly higher than another estimate, which suggests that Brazil’s potential sink from reforestation and natural forest management could reach –1.7 GtCO₂/year by 2030.4,5
Increasing carbon sinks in line with a 1.5°C pathway would mean sustainably increasing the area of reforested and restored land, halting deforestation, and practicing sustainable forest management.
In reality, the first half of 2022 saw massive deforestation and degradation of Brazil’s forests. The area deforested over this time period was 80% higher than in the same period in 2018. This trend needs to reverse if the Brazilian government is to achieve its climate goals.6,7
Brazil's LULUCF emissions
MtCO₂/yr
Note that there is an inconsistency between modelled LULUCF emissions and sequestration and historical emissions and sequestration reported by countries. This is because of a difference in how anthropogenic emissions and sequestration are estimated in greenhouse gas inventories compared to models.
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Graph description
Historical CO2 emissions in 2005 – 2020 for the LULUCF sector are derived from national greenhouse gas inventories (data source: FAO 2021). Future emissions trajectory in 2025 - 2060 for the LULUCF sector is derived from a global 1.5°C compatible pathway downscaled to the country level (data source: IMAGE 2021). Positive emissions indicate an increase in deforestation or other sources related to land use change. Negative emissions indicate an increase of forest area through afforestation/reforestation.
Methodology
Data References
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Brazil's Forest area change
Million ha / yr
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Graph description
The graph indicates the annual rate of forest area change. Negative values result from a loss in forest area through deforestation and forestry (i.e. harvesting). Positive values result in forest area expansion through reforestation or afforestation. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
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Forest area change
The Amazon and the Cerrado biomes represent almost 70% of Brazil’s territory.8 Both biomes are rich in biodiversity and provide important environmental services, including carbon sequestration. However, the vegetation cover in these biomes has reduced significantly from their original size, driven by the high demand for land for conversion and a shrinking of the already small/limited protected areas.9
Over the period 2004–2012 (in the Amazon) and 2010–2012 (in the Cerrado biome), deforestation rates reduced significantly as a result of robust public policies to prevent deforestation. The government implemented a rigorous monitoring system, expanded protected areas, and announced new regulations related to deforestation such as the moratorium on soybeans. The soy moratorium, however, despite having effectively reduced deforestation in the Amazon, may possibly have caused deforestation to leak into the Cerrado biome. The past few years have seen a resurgence of deforestation in the Amazon, linked to a weakening of environmental protection laws and institutions in Brazil under the Bolsonaro administration.10,11,12,13
Since January 2023, the new president Lula has made the conservation of the Amazon and environmental protection his government’s priority; as first measures, the Amazon fund was re-established, and it is expected that policies that negatively affected the forests will be reversed.
Starting from 2025, the 1.5°C compatible pathway analysed here shows a halting of deforestation and the implementation of large-scale reforestation, with a rate peaking at more than 6 Mha/year. For comparison, forest loss was on average around 3 Mha/year between 2005–2020, peaking at over 5 Mha in 2016, and reported data shows that Brazil has planted forests on average only 0.7 Mha/year in 2000–2020.14,[16]
Tree planting on a 1.5°C compatible scale would need to be implemented sustainably to avoid adverse impacts on biodiversity and water resources, and land for food crops would need to be prioritised to avoid adverse impacts on food security. Brazil would need strong law enforcement and penalties for deforestation, improved governance and massive economic incentives for the expansion of forest cover.15 For example, it has been estimated that expanding the forest area covered by the soy moratorium to the Cerrado could prevent the conversion of 3.6 Mha of native vegetation by 2050.16
Brazil's Land cover areas
Million ha
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Graph description
The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
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Brazil's land cover change relative to 2020
Million ha
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Graph description
The graph at the left shows the changes in land-use types relative to the total of available land in 2005 - 2060. The graph at the right shows the changes in land-use types relative to their 2020 levels. The land-use types included in the analysis are forest, land dedicated to pasture and cropland, built-up areas for settlements, and other natural area. This latter variable includes all areas unsuitable for agriculture, abandoned agricultural land, and natural forests. Data source: IMAGE 2021
Methodology
Data References
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Evolution of land-use pattern
The analysed 1.5°C compatible pathway indicates an increase in forest area of over 100 Mha relative to 2020 levels by mid-century. Meanwhile, there is a decline in cropland of 27 Mha by 2050, and an even greater decline for pasture land of 88 Mha by 2050. These large-scale shifts would require changing practices, for example, by shifting to innovative land management such as integrated crop-livestock and tree-livestock (silvopastoral) systems that allow secure production while reducing forest conversion for agriculture. In addition, improving the efficiency of agriculture production systems could further free up land for restoration.17
Although Brazil has some land-related mitigation measures in place, it would need to show a real commitment to enforce existing laws and increase allocated budgets to be in line with a 1.5°C scenario. Previous experience has shown that measures are effective when there is political will and empowerment of the institutions involved.
The main emission reduction plan the Brazilian government has in place for the land use sector is the “ABC+ plan”. In 2021, as a part of promoting sustainable development in rural areas, the government presented a new programme to recover 1.5 Mha of native vegetation by 2050, which includes reforestation through agroforestry. To encourage farmers to join the programme, the government of São Paulo provides payments for environmental services (PSA) projects.
However, it is clear that this reforestation target is not in line with the 1.5°C pathway analysed here (see the section above), and is very low in comparison to the total area deforested between 2000–2021, which was 44 Mha.