LULUCF

Brazil’s LULUCF sector

Brazil’s LULUCF sector has historically acted as a net carbon source, with emissions peaking between 2003-2007, when deforestation rates also reached an unprecedented level. In 2022, LULUCF represented almost 40% of total Brazilian emissions.¹ Most of these emissions stem from deforestation and forest degradation, driven by expanding agricultural production, primarily soybeans and cattle ranching,² which are key exports for Brazil.³ Deforestation in Brazil is primarily driven by illegal appropriation of public lands for agriculture or livestock, illegal logging, expansion of infrastructure like roads, and wildfires.⁴ 2024 saw massive wildfires across the country, burning over 30 Mha and leading to 2.3 Mha of tree cover loss – roughly 50% of all tree cover loss in that year.⁵^,⁶ The strong share of biofuels in Brazil’s transport sector is also a driver of deforestation – biofuel use pushes up demand for soybeans, corn, and sugarcane, which leads to increased deforestation as farming expands.⁷ Illegal deforestation often remains undetected and therefore unaddressed.⁸

The Amazon and the Cerrado biomes account for 70% of Brazil’s territory. Both biomes are rich in biodiversity and provide important environmental services – including in regulating global water cycles.⁹ However, the vegetation cover in these biomes has shrunk over the past two decades due to the high demand for land and fewer safeguards on protected areas. Between 2018-2022 there was a resurgence of deforestation in the Amazon linked to a weakening of environmental protection laws and institutions in Brazil under the Bolsonaro administration.¹⁰

After Bolsonaro left office, the Lula administration reversed much of the deregulation in the forestry sector, slowing deforestation significantly. This led to a 31% decrease in deforestation in the Amazon in 2024 compared to 2023 levels and slowed the pace of degradation in the Cerrado.¹¹ However, there are substantial risks of reversing current deforestation reduction trends and threatening the country’s commitment to stopping deforestation by 2030, as demand for agricultural exports increase.¹²

In its 2035 NDC, submitted in November 2024, Brazil reinforces its commitment to reach zero deforestation by 2030 by eliminating illegal deforestation and compensating for the legal suppression of native vegetation and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions.¹³ Brazil recognises this will require the strengthening of current measures, as well as positive economic incentives for maintaining forests on private rural properties. The NDC also reiterates the National Native Vegetation Recovery Plan (PLANAVEG) commitment to restore 12 million hectares of forest by 2030. Brazil’s National Mitigation Strategy expects that land-based removals from public land will account for 317 MtCO₂e by 2030.¹⁴ There are significant uncertainties around the size of Brazil’s sink in 2035, with studies estimating between 120 MtCO₂ and 630 MtCO₂ per year. Brazil’s National Mitigation Strategy, published in 2025, estimates a net LULUCF sink of 325 MtCO₂ per year in 2035.¹⁵ Given the uncertainty around the contribution of the LULUCF sector for Brazil’s emissions reduction targets, there is significant risk of overreliance on the sink rather than making deeper, more rapid emissions reductions elsewhere.

Graph description

Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.

Methodology
- Downscaling LULUCF emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions from National Inventory Report
- The 1.5°C -aligned projection of land-use emissions

1.5ºC compatible LULUCF pathways

For Brazil, we focus on the Net-Zero Commitments pathway, as it offers a more balanced picture of the LULUCF sector compared to the other two. In this pathway, a net sink in 2030 is achieved through reducing gross emissions below 2020 levels and increasing gross sinks above 2020 levels. The Deep electrification pathway relies more heavily on an expanded sink driven by higher levels of tree-planting, which could lead to negative impacts on biodiversity and traditional land-users. The Amazon is extraordinarily diverse, and common commercial tree plantations favour developing monocultures (often using teak or eucalyptus trees) which can crowd out native plants and dry out the ecosystem, decreasing system resilience and increasing vulnerability to wildfires.¹⁶ At the same time, tree planting can push rural and indigenous populations off land at the expense of their food production and livelihoods in areas without robust legal protections.¹⁷

In the Net-Zero Commitments pathway the LULUCF sector in Brazil sees more than a 52% reduction in gross emissions compared to 2020 values, an increase of 24.5% in its sink. Net emissions from the LULUCF sector reach their lowest point around 2045 in this pathway, at -324 MtCO₂. After 2045, the sink declines towards the end of the century and the LULUCF sector becomes a net source of emissions around 2070. This decline reflects multiple interacting factors. As planted trees mature, their sequestration potential saturates.¹⁸^,¹⁹ Concurrently, climate risks such as fires, droughts, storms and pests increasingly undermine forest carbon uptake.²⁰^, ²¹ The effect of CO₂ fertilisation also weakens as emissions fall in 1.5°C pathways and other limiting factors, such as water stress, intensify.²² Declining ecosystem productivity and carbon stock resilience further raise concerns about the long-term sustainability of forest-based removals under climate stress.²³^,²⁴

Brazil's LULUCF emissions

MtCO₂ / year

Graph description

Historical CO2 emissions 1990-2020 for the land-use sector are taken from the country's First Biennial Transparency Report where available, and otherwise from Grassi et al (2022): Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity to countries' reporting. Future emissions, covering the period 2025-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level. Positive values represent emissions from deforestation, harvesting, and soil respiration, while negative values reflect CO₂ removals through afforestation and reforestation.

Methodology
- Downscaling LULUCF emissions
Data References
- Historical emissions from National Inventory Report
- The 1.5°C -aligned projection of land-use emissions

Forestry activities

Aligning the LULUCF sector with a 1.5°C compatible pathway is key for Brazil to avoid adverse impacts on biodiversity and water resources.²⁵^,²⁶ Brazil would need to maintain and extend current efforts to prevent further deforestation and improve governance and economic incentives for the expansion of forest cover.

Across all illustrative pathways, gross forest loss stops by 2030. On average, the Net-Zero Commitments pathway shows A/R would add just under 1 million hectares per year during the 2020s in Brazil. The total forested area then levels out post-2030 as deforestation stops and A/R activities slow to around 250,000 ha per year until 2040, when forest area change becomes negligible.

There is potential for further A/R and deeper reductions in LULUCF emissions if Brazil’s restoration commitment under PLANAVEG is enacted, as well as further commitments such as the “Arc of Restoration”, an initiative resulting of a partnership between the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change and the National Development Bank, which aims to finance the restoration of 24 million hectares of deforested or degraded areas in the Amazon by 2050. Up to 31.5 million hectares could be restored according to recent estimates.²⁷

Brazil's Forest area change

Million hectares / year

Graph description

The graph presents five-year averages of changes in forest area. Negative values represent losses in forest area due to deforestation and harvesting, referred to as "forest loss". Historical forest loss data cover the period 2001-2025 and are sourced from Global Forest Watch (2025). Positive values represent forest area expansion through afforestation and/or reforestation, referred to as "forest gain". Historical forest gain data cover the period 2001-2020 and are sourced from the FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment (2025). Future changes in forest area, covering the period 2026-2070, follow a 1.5°C-compatible pathway downscaled to the national level.

Methodology
- Determining forest area changes
Data References

[Inventório Nacional de Emissões, NIR/BTR (2024).]() ↩
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Global Forest Watch, ‘Tree Cover Loss’, 2025 ↩
Eder Johnson de Area Leão Pereira, Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas, and Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro, ‘GHG Emissions in Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Sectors and the Risk to Amazonia Conservation’, The European Physical Journal B 97, no. 7 (2024): 94 ↩
William D. Carvalho, Karen Mustin, Renato R. Hilário, Ivan M. Vasconcelos, Vivianne Eilers, and Philip M. Fearnside, ‘Deforestation Control in the Brazilian Amazon: A Conservation Struggle Being Lost as Agreements and Regulations Are Subverted and Bypassed’, Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation 17, no. 3 (2019): 122–30 ↩
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Governo do Brasil. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/INPE – PRODES (2024). ↩
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Yude Pan, Richard A. Birdsey, Jingyun Fang, et al., ‘A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests’, Science 333, no. 6045 (2011): 988–93 ↩
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Kurt A. Fesenmyer, Erin E. Poor, Drew E. Terasaki Hart, et al., ‘Addressing Critiques Refines Global Estimates of Reforestation Potential for Climate Change Mitigation’, Nature Communications 16, no. 1 (2025): 4572 ↩
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Lovejoy, Thomas E., and Carlos Nobre. "Amazon tipping point: Last chance for action." Science Advances 5.12 (2019): eaba2949. ↩
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Fesenmyer, Kurt A., et al. "Addressing critiques refines global estimates of reforestation potential for climate change mitigation." Nature communications 16.1 (2025): 4572. ↩

What is Brazil's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Brazil's LULUCF emissions

MtCO₂ / year

1.5ºC compatible LULUCF pathways

Brazil's LULUCF emissions

MtCO₂ / year

Forestry activities

Brazil's Forest area change

Million hectares / year

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