What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Transport
Australia’s transport sector accounts for the largest share of the total final energy consumption, 41% as of 2019, and growing. Consequently, annual carbon emissions from the sector increased by around 1.6% per year during this time. As of 2019, oil accounts for 97% of transport’s energy use.
Australia's energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the transport sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Recent analysis has highlighted the inefficiency of Australian vehicles.1 Today, Australia is the only OECD country without mandatory fuel efficiency standards.2 A previous government assessment found that raising transport fuel efficiency standards was Australia’s most cost-effective emissions abatement opportunity.3,4 Estimates of marginal abatement costs for Australia have confirmed that setting such would see a net financial gain, rather than imposing a cost on the economy.5
The Labor government has announced a suite of new transport policy, including investment in electric vehicle charging infrastructure, hydrogen vehicle refuelling stations, and an on-road emissions and fuel usage testing programme. A tax exemption for electric cars has also been introduced.6 Fuel efficiency standards, however, remain conspicuously absent. The government has recently sought consultation on a National Electric Vehicle Strategy, including on the introduction of fuel efficiency standards.7
The 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here give a range of carbon emissions reduction for the transport sector of 29-69% from 2019 levels by 2030. The large range is in part due to varying forecasts for future energy demand in the sector.
Australia's transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Australia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised transport sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
99
|
30 to
71
|
11 to
44
|
5 to
18
|
2052 to
2057
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-69 to
-29%
|
-89 to
-55%
|
-95 to
-82%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
2
|
8 to
19
|
25 to
46
|
46 to
63
|
|
Share of biofuels
per cent
|
0
|
3 to
18
|
7 to
10
|
10 to
11
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
2 to
16
|
6 to
55
|
14 to
55
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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