What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition Gap

Last update: 1 December 2022

1.5°C compatible pathways

Australia’s NDC indicates a 43% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2030, including LULUCF, which translates into a 28% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 or a 2030 emissions level of 380 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF.1 The target is not in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, which would require domestic emissions to be reduced to 229-286 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or 46-56% below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF). When including LULUCF, Australia’s emissions would need to decline at about 57-67% below 2005 levels by 2030.2

The 1.5°C pathway shown here is consistent with the Climate Action Tracker’s 2020 assessment of a bottom-up Paris Agreement compatible pathway for Australia, which requires an emissions reduction of about 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

The Climate Change Bill , passed in September 2022, is indicative of the change in the Australian government’s overall stance on climate and energy matters.3 However, in order to achieve significant emissions reductions, let alone 1.5°C compatibility, the government would need to implement stable and effective climate policy. This should be kept in mind as the Labor government seeks to reform existing federal climate policy such as the Safeguard Mechanism.4

Australia’s overall fair share contribution to reducing global GHG emissions in line with the Paris Agreement would require a 60% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030, including LULUCF.5,6

Australia's total GHG emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

Reference Year

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Long term pathway

The Australian government committed to a reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in October 2021 and was enshrined in law under the Climate Change Bill, passed in September 2022.7,8

To be on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Australia would need to roughly halve its GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, by 2030, and achieve an 84-94% reduction below 2005 levels by 2050. The Climate Action Tracker’s 2020 assessment of a Paris Agreement compatible pathway for Australia showed emission reductions of about 90% below 2005 levels by 2050, excluding LULUCF.

To reach net zero GHG emissions in 2050 under the 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here, Australia would need to deploy removals to balance residual GHG emissions, principally from agriculture.

The government’s current emissions reduction plans rely heavily on offsetting through carbon credits.9 Serious integrity issues with these credits could undermine the government’s ability to realise their net zero targets.10,11

Australia’s net emissions decreased by 18% in 2005-2020 almost entirely as a result of the LULUCF sector change from an emissions source to sink. The government projects that the sector will continue to act as a sink through to 2030, declining by around 37% in 2020-2030, reaching around –26 MtCO₂.12

Australia's primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling

Energy system transformation

In 2020, fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) were used for 93% of the country’s primary energy needs (29%, 37%, and 27% respectively).13 Fugitive emissions from the energy sector in Australia are significant, largely due to the extraction and processing of coal and gas for export markets, with Australia the world’s largest exporter of both.14 These two commodities make up around 25% of export value and roughly 6% of GDP, illustrating Australia’s need to diversify its economy away from fossil fuel exports to achieve decarbonisation.15-16

Renewable energy-based “green” hydrogen may provide an important economic and climate change mitigation opportunity for Australia, and has the potential to decarbonise the industrial sector, particularly the production of ammonia, steel, and petrochemicals.17–18 The Australian government needs to focus on green, and not fossil fuel based, hydrogen production, which, even when produced using carbon capture and storage (CCS), produces significant emissions.19 It also remains an unproven and costly technology, making it inherently risky to pursue.

All illustrative pathways agree, as does this bottom-up study by the Climate Action Tracker, that unabated fossil fuels should be phased out quickly and steadily so that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry reach zero around 2050.

Australia's total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Australia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference Year

Indicator
2005
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
526
545
257
229 to 286
125
77 to 158
60
32 to 85
Relative to reference year in %
-51%
-56 to -46%
-76%
-85 to -70%
-89%
-94 to -84%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
386
415
201
146 to 221
68
11 to 113
6
-14 to 39
2058
2044 to 2065
Relative to reference year in %
-48%
-62 to -43%
-82%
-97 to -71%
-99%
-104 to -90%

All information excluding LULUCF emissions and novel CDR approaches. BECCS are the only carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded

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