What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Buildings
Direct CO₂ emissions in the Australian buildings sector have been rising steadily since 1990, with 2019 showing a rare small year-on-year decline.1 As of 2019, electricity holds a 60% share of the buildings sector energy mix while gas has a 26% share.
Australia's energy mix in the buildings sector
petajoule per year
-
Graph description
Energy mix composition in the buildings sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
Australia has a high, and increasingly rapid, uptake of rooftop solar. Recent analysis shows that the country’s residential solar share of total power capacity is around 15%, making Australia a global leader in this regard.2 The number of small-scale rooftop solar systems in Australia exceeds 3 million, generating about 7% of Australia’s total power.3 Capacity additions of small-scale solar have grown by an average 39% year on year since 2016, while the average size of rooftop solar systems increased threefold over the past decade.4
Apart from how energy is supplied, reducing total energy demand from buildings should also play a role in emission reductions in the sector. Accordingly, the Australian government has recently updated the National Construction Code to increase the energy efficiency of new residential buildings. This is in line with an earlier plan to set a trajectory for net zero energy buildings.5,6
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would see electricity’s share of the buildings sector’s energy mix increase to 78-81% by 2030 and 92-94% by 2050. This would be in conjunction with an increasing share of renewables in power generation (81-88% by 2030, 100% by 2040). With increasing renewable-based electrification in the buildings sector, and the introduction of other renewable fuels (i.e., hydrogen), fossil gas’ role in the fuel mix would decline.
Australia's buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
-
Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the buildings sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
-
1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and hydrogen in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Australia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised buildings sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
15
|
5 to
12
|
2 to
7
|
1 to
2
|
2033 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-67 to
-20%
|
-85 to
-55%
|
-95 to
-83%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
60
|
78 to
81
|
89 to
89
|
92 to
94
|
|
Share of heat
per cent
|
2
|
0 to
2
|
0 to
3
|
3 to
4
|
|
Share of hydrogen
per cent
|
0
|
0 to
4
|
0 to
12
|
0 to
16
|
All values are rounded. Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
-
Methodology
Data References
-