What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Industry
Between 2015 and 2019, Australia’s carbon emissions from industrial energy use grew by around 19%.1 Emissions intensity increased by about the same amount, suggesting that the rise in emissions was not due to increased energy demand but rather a dirtier fuel mix. Coal use increased by 27% over the period even while overall energy demand declined slightly.
Australia's energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector.
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Graph description
Energy mix composition in the industry sector in consumption (EJ) and shares (%) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Australia’s industrial emissions are ostensibly regulated through the Safeguard Mechanism. However, in reality, aggregate emissions from industrial facilities covered by the mechanism have grown since its implementation in 2016. The mechanism’s failure is in large part due to ineffective emissions baselines and the use of dubious offsets in lieu of real emissions reductions. The government has been urged to consider these and other issues in its current review of the mechanism.2,3
Australia’s LNG export industry, which accounts for about a quarter of the emissions covered by the Safeguard Mechanism, is particularly concerning in terms of the contribution to both domestic and global emissions reductions. While the Labor government has increased Australia’s NDC target, it is nonetheless continuing with policies that support the LNG industry and touting carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a viable means for reducing emissions.4,5 This is despite the ongoing failure of Australia’s only large-scale CCS project in operation, a facility connected to the offshore Gorgon gas field.6,7
The 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here see carbon emissions from industrial energy use fall by 66-76% below 2019 levels by 2030 and reach zero between 2047-2053. This is driven by increased electrification (from a renewable-based power sector) as well as the use of hydrogen.
Australia's industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Direct CO₂ emissions only are considered (see power sector for electricity related emissions, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here).
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Graph description
Direct CO₂ emissions of the industry sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Australia's GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
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Graph description
1.5°C compatible CO₂ emissions pathways. This is presented through a set of illustrative pathways and a 1.5°C compatible range for total CO₂ emissions excl. LULUCF. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC SR1.5, defined by the 5th and 5th percentiles.
Data References
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1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, shares of electricity, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Australia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised industry sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
|
80
|
19 to
27
|
8 to
8
|
1 to
6
|
2047 to
2053
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-76 to
-66%
|
-90 to
-89%
|
-99 to
-92%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of electricity
per cent
|
30
|
33 to
48
|
53 to
65
|
69 to
78
|
|
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
per cent
|
41
|
51 to
55
|
72 to
73
|
84 to
88
|
Fuel share provided refers to energy demand only from the industry sector. BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks.
Only direct CO₂ emissions are considered (electricity, hydrogen and heat emissions are not considered here; see power sector for emissions from electricity generation). All values are rounded. Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intenstiy threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.
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Methodology
Data References
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