Current Situation

Last update: 1 December 2022

Emissions profile

According to 2020 government figures, Australia’s emissions were 537 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF. Electricity was the largest contributor accounting for 32% excluding LULUCF.¹ This sector is dominated by fossil fuels as coal and gas represented the highest shares of power generation, at 54% and 20% respectively.²

Stationary energy is the second largest contributor to emissions, representing 19%, excluding LULUCF. These emissions are from burning fuels for energy excluding power generation and transport, e.g., for heat, steam and pressure. Stationary energy emissions have increased 13% in 2016-2020 primarily driven by LNG emissions, which increased by 127% in this period.³

Transport represents 17% of total emissions excluding LULUCF.5 This sector saw a small dip in emissions from 2019 to 2020 related to the COVID-19 pandemic, but is expected to rebound to 2019 levels by 2024.⁴

Current policy projections show that Australia’s emissions will decrease by 15% (reaching 445 MtCO₂e/yr) below 2005 levels by 2030, excl. LULUCF, well short of the 45-56% emissions reductions (229-286 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030) required to be 1.5°C compatible.⁵

Graph description

Historical emissions per gas and per sector.

Data References
- Historical emissions: UNFCCC 2019. Inventory year: 2017.

Energy system

Australia’s fuel mix is largely fossil fuel based. As of 2020, coal, oil and gas made up 29%, 37%, and 27% of energy consumption, with renewables, accounting for 7%. In 2020, coal and gas had a 54% and 20% generation share in the power sector, respectively, while renewables, including biomass, stood at 25%.⁶

Domestic coal consumption has declined by 28% since 2008.3 The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) projects that 8 GW of the current 23 GW of coal fired power capacity will retire by 2030.⁷

AEMO forecasts a likely decline in domestic gas use.⁸ However, total consumption is likely to remain close to 2000 PJ/yr as the government and LNG industry are using the Russian gas crisis as a rationale for expanding gas production.⁹^–¹⁰

Australia’s previous government had pledged AUD 2 billion in fossil fuel financing under their ‘gas-fired recovery’.¹¹ The Labor government has yet to clarify the status of these spending announcements.¹² At the same time, it is continuing with policies that support the LNG industry and touting carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a viable means for reducing emissions.¹³^,¹⁴

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Base year emissions target

NDC target

43% below 2005 by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).¹⁵
29% below 2005 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

Market mechanisms

Emissions reduction fund: allows Australian businesses to earn carbon credits per tonne of GHG emissions reduced or stored. The businesses can in turn sell these credits to earn income.¹⁶^,¹⁷

Long-term target

Net zero emissions by 2050.¹⁸

Sectoral targets

Energy

Improve energy productivity by 40% from 2015 to 2030.¹⁹

Power

Renewable energy target to have 33,000 GWh of power come from renewables by 2020.²⁰ This was met in January 2021.²¹
The governing Labor party’s Powering Australia Plan is projected to result in an 82% renewable energy penetration on the National Electricity Market by 2030.²²

Australian Government. Australia’s emissions projections 2021. 2021. ↩
Australian Government. Australian Energy Update 2022. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. 2022. ↩
Australian Government. Australia’s emissions projections 2021. 2021. ↩
Australian Government. Australia’s emissions projections 2021. 2021. ↩
The 2022 projections including LULUCF for 2030 are for about a 32% reduction, 11% short of the Governments 43% target. ↩
Australian Government. Australian Energy Update 2022. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. 2022. ↩
AEMO. 2022 Integrated System Plan For the National Electricity Market. 2022. ↩
Australian Government. Australia’s emissions projections 2021. 2021. ↩
Hurst, D. Australia could send extra gas to Europe as Russia cuts supplies due to Ukraine tensions. The Guardian. 2022. ↩
AEMO. Gas Statement of Opportunities. 2022. ↩
Australian Government. Legacy of ongoing Morrison Government fossil fuel handouts. 2022. ↩
Morton, A. & Touma, R. Labor urged to axe $1.9bn in ‘zombie’ fossil fuel subsidies promised by the Coalition. The Guardian. 2022. ↩
King, M. New offshore greenhouse gas storage acreage to help lower emissions. The Hon Madeleine King MP Media Releases. 2022. ↩
King, M. Speech at the Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference, Adelaide. The Hon Madeleine King MP Media Releases. 2022. ↩
Australian Government. Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution Communication 2022. 2022. ↩
Australian Government. Emissions Reduction Fund White Paper. 2014. ↩
For a critique of the effectiveness of this mechanism, see Climate Action Tracker’s analysis of Australia’s current policies. For discussion of the associated Safeguard Mechanism, see Submission on Safeguard Mechanism reform. ↩
Australian Government. Australia’s Long-term Emissions Reduction Plan. 2021. ↩
COAG Energy Council. National Energy Productivity Plan 2015-2030. 2015. ↩
Australian Government. Renewable Energy Target. Clean Energy Regulator. 2022. ↩
Parkinson, G. Australia officially met renewable target in January, despite big project delays. Renew Economy. 2021. ↩
Reputex. The Economic Impact of the ALP’s Powering Australia Plan. 2021. ↩

What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

Australia's current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr