What is Australia's pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Power
Power sector in 2030
In 2020, coal, gas, and renewables (including biomass) made up 54%, 20%, and 25% of Australia’s power generation mix, respectively. The latest government statistics show that coal’s share has fallen, while that of gas and renewables has increased.1 Although the decrease in coal use is positive, illustrative 1.5°C pathways would require this to occur at a faster pace and that coal be phased out of power by 2030. Gas-fired power should also begin to decline and be phased out by 2035. Moreover, fossil fuel phase-out should coincide with a strong uptake of renewables. This is to be accomplished by a projected 82% renewable penetration in Australia’s power sector by 2030. An 82% renewables penetration would be an increase from the current 27% level and the projected ~68% 2030 level under the government’s latest projections.
Australia's power mix
terawatt-hour per year
In the 100%RE scenario, non-energy fossil fuel demand is not included.
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Graph description
Power energy mix composition in generation (TWh) and capacities (GW) for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on selected IPCC SR1.5 global least costs pathways and a 100% renewable energy pathway. Selected countries include the Stated Policies Scenario from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2021.
Methodology
Data References
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Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
A 1.5°C compatible full decarbonisation of the power sector by mid-2030s could be driven by the phase-out of coal around 2029 and gas around 2035, and a strong uptake of renewables reaching around 100% of the power mix by 2040.
The Climate Action Tracker assessment of Paris compatible pathway for Australia shows that the power sector could be fully decarbonised by the mid-2030s with a 97% renewable energy share by 2030. Analysed downscaled pathways show a lower uptake of renewables by 2030, around 81-88%.
The range of 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here see power sector carbon emissions reach 32–60 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, a reduction of 67-82% below 2019 levels.
Australia's power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
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Graph description
Emissions and carbon intensity of the power sector in selected 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Methodology
Data References
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Investments
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Australia to be on the order of USD 3 to 18 billion by 2030 and 4 to 18 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors such as industry and transport. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time.
Australia's renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
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Graph description
Annual investments required for variable and conventional renewables installed capacities excluding BECCS across time under 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Methodology
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1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Australia
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Decarbonised power sector by
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
|
685
|
120 to
135
|
-61 to
0
|
-80 to
0
|
2039 to
2040
|
|
Relative to reference year in %
|
-83 to
-80%
|
-109 to
-100%
|
-112 to
-100%
|
| Indicator |
2019
|
2030
|
2040
|
2050
|
Year of phase-out
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Share of unabated coal
per cent
|
59
|
0 to
5
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
|
|
Share of unabated gas
per cent
|
20
|
6 to
7
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
2035
|
|
Share of renewable energy
per cent
|
20
|
81 to
88
|
100 to
100
|
100 to
100
|
|
|
Share of unabated fossil fuel
per cent
|
80
|
12 to
19
|
0 to
0
|
0 to
0
|
BECCS are the only Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies considered in these benchmarks
All values are rounded
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Methodology
Data References
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